Football · South Korea K League 3 · 07/11, 06:00

Prediction: Gyeongju HNP vs Chuncheon FC

Team pages: Gyeongju HNP · Chuncheon FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Gyeongju HNP1.71

Chuncheon FC1.27

1X2

47% 26% 27%

Gyeongju HNP Draw Chuncheon FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Gyeongju HNP 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

LWWDWWWWDD

Chuncheon FC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DDWLWWWDWW

Head-to-head

Gyeongju HNP 1–3–2 Chuncheon FC (6 last)

Chuncheon FC2-2Gyeongju HNP
Gyeongju HNP0-0Chuncheon FC
Chuncheon FC1-0Gyeongju HNP
Gyeongju HNP2-0Chuncheon FC
Chuncheon FC3-2Gyeongju HNP
Chuncheon FC0-0Gyeongju HNP

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gyeongju HNP 1550 · Chuncheon FC 1550

	Gyeongju HNP	Draw	Chuncheon FC
Our model	47%	26%	27%
Market	47%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Chuncheon FC: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gyeongju HNP	Chuncheon FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.4	1.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.9	2.3 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.50

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.90▲	Pinn 2.22 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.40 → 3.25▼	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:53 +17’	1.85	3.50	3.40
16:54 +19’	1.90▲	3.50	3.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:50 +23’	2.22	3.03	2.96

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gyeongju HNP 1–3–2 Chuncheon FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 South Korea K League 3	Chuncheon FC	2-2 HT 0-1	Gyeongju HNP
21/09/25 South Korea K League 3	Gyeongju HNP	0-0 HT 0-0	Chuncheon FC
24/05/25 South Korea K League 3	Chuncheon FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Gyeongju HNP
07/09/24 South Korea K League 3	Gyeongju HNP	2-0 HT 0-0	Chuncheon FC
11/05/24 South Korea K League 3	Chuncheon FC	3-2 HT 2-0	Gyeongju HNP
12/08/23 South Korea K League 3	Chuncheon FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Gyeongju HNP

Standings · South Korea K League 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Siheung City AC	25	17	5	3	38	22	56
2	Pocheon Citizen FC	25	14	8	3	43	22	50
3	Daejeon Korail	25	13	5	7	36	20	44
4	Busan Trans Corp	25	11	7	7	42	31	40
5	Gyeongju HNP	25	9	10	6	39	35	37
6	Chuncheon FC	25	10	6	9	43	37	36
7	Dangjin Citizen FC	25	10	5	10	47	39	35
8	Gangneung City	25	9	6	10	26	33	33
9	Changwon City	25	7	9	9	27	31	30
10	Ulsan Citizen FC	25	8	5	12	25	28	29
11	Yeoju	25	7	8	10	30	34	29
12	Mokpo City	25	5	10	10	24	40	25
13	Yangpyeong FC	25	4	8	13	30	49	20
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	25	1	8	16	27	56	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gyeongju HNP	Chuncheon FC
Yeoju	3-3 D	2-1 W
Mokpo City	1-1 D	1-0 W
Dangjin Citizen FC	3-2 W	4-3 W
Changwon City	2-1 W	1-1 D
Gangneung City	1-0 W	0-1 L
Ulsan Citizen FC	2-1 W	2-1 W
Yangpyeong FC	3-3 D	3-3 D
Pocheon Citizen FC	1-3 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 1 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Chuncheon FC (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Gyeongju HNP

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Yeoju South Korea K League 3	1-2	3-3	8	3	D
11/10	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
04/10	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	2-1	3-2	5	7	W
20/09	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
12/09	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
05/09	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
22/08	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	2-0	3-3	7	3	D
25/07	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
11/07	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
28/06	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-2	1-3	2	6	L

Chuncheon FC

DDWLWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K League 3	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
10/10	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-0	3-2	12	3	W
03/10	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
12/09	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	0-0	2-1	6	3	W
06/09	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	1	2	W
29/08	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	4-3	5	1	W
23/08	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
26/07	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-1	3	7	W
12/07	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
27/06	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	3-3	2	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gyeongju HNP vs Chuncheon FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gyeongju HNP win (47%). Probabilities: Gyeongju HNP 47%, draw 26%, Chuncheon FC 27%.

How many goals are expected in Gyeongju HNP vs Chuncheon FC?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Gyeongju HNP 1.71 · Chuncheon FC 1.27), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Gyeongju HNP vs Chuncheon FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.