Football · South Korea K League 3 · 07/11, 06:00

Prediction: Yangpyeong FC vs Dangjin Citizen FC

Team pages: Yangpyeong FC · Dangjin Citizen FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.9Total

Yangpyeong FC1.81

Dangjin Citizen FC2.08

1X2

33% 24% 43%

Yangpyeong FC Draw Dangjin Citizen FC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Yangpyeong FC 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Dangjin Citizen FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Yangpyeong FC 0–2 Dangjin Citizen FC (2 last)

Dangjin Citizen FC3-1Yangpyeong FC
Yangpyeong FC1-3Dangjin Citizen FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Yangpyeong FC 1425 · Dangjin Citizen FC 1534

	Yangpyeong FC	Draw	Dangjin Citizen FC
Our model	34%	22%	44%
Market	32%	26%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +1.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dangjin Citizen FC (rating 1425 vs 1534).
H2H favours Dangjin Citizen FC: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Yangpyeong FC	Dangjin Citizen FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.5	2.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	1.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.5	2.5 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.40

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 1.5 · xG: 4.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.28 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.7% Pinnacle margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:02 +9’	2.80	3.40	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:54 +19’	2.71	3.22	2.28

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Yangpyeong FC 0–0–2 Dangjin Citizen FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 South Korea K League 3	Dangjin Citizen FC	3-1 HT 1-1	Yangpyeong FC
06/11/21 South Korea K4 League	Yangpyeong FC	1-3 HT 0-2	Dangjin Citizen FC

Standings · South Korea K League 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Siheung City AC	25	17	5	3	38	22	56
2	Pocheon Citizen FC	25	14	8	3	43	22	50
3	Daejeon Korail	25	13	5	7	36	20	44
4	Busan Trans Corp	25	11	7	7	42	31	40
5	Gyeongju HNP	25	9	10	6	39	35	37
6	Chuncheon FC	25	10	6	9	43	37	36
7	Dangjin Citizen FC	25	10	5	10	47	39	35
8	Gangneung City	25	9	6	10	26	33	33
9	Changwon City	25	7	9	9	27	31	30
10	Ulsan Citizen FC	25	8	5	12	25	28	29
11	Yeoju	25	7	8	10	30	34	29
12	Mokpo City	25	5	10	10	24	40	25
13	Yangpyeong FC	25	4	8	13	30	49	20
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	25	1	8	16	27	56	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Yangpyeong FC	Dangjin Citizen FC
Gangneung City	0-3 L	5-2 W
Pocheon Citizen FC	0-2 L	1-1 D
Siheung City AC	1-3 L	0-0 D
Daejeon Korail	1-2 L	1-0 W
Gyeongju HNP	3-3 D	2-3 L
Busan Trans Corp	2-4 L	5-3 W
Jeonbuk Motors II	5-2 W	2-0 W
Chuncheon FC	3-3 D	3-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Dangjin Citizen FC (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Yangpyeong FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Gangneung City South Korea K League 3	0-2	0-3	2	2	L
09/10	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	2-1	1	3	W
03/10	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-2	4	1	L
13/09	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
06/09	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	0-2	1-3	8	2	L
29/08	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-2	2	4	L
22/08	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	0-2	3-3	5	3	D
26/07	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	2-1	2-4	2	7	L
12/07	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	2-1	5-2	4	5	W
27/06	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	3-3	2	6	D

Dangjin Citizen FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Siheung City AC South Korea K League 3	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
10/10	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
04/10	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	1-2	2-3	6	7	L
13/09	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	3-2	5-3	3	1	W
29/08	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	3-4	8	1	L
22/08	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
25/07	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	2-1	6-1	3	4	W
18/07	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-0	8	3	W
11/07	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
28/06	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	3-1	5-2	2	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Yangpyeong FC vs Dangjin Citizen FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Dangjin Citizen FC win (43%). Probabilities: Yangpyeong FC 33%, draw 24%, Dangjin Citizen FC 43%.

How many goals are expected in Yangpyeong FC vs Dangjin Citizen FC?

The model expects 3.9 goals (Yangpyeong FC 1.81 · Dangjin Citizen FC 2.08), with a 60% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Yangpyeong FC vs Dangjin Citizen FC?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.