Football · South Korea K League 3 · 07/11, 06:00

Prediction: Pocheon Citizen FC vs Ulsan Citizen FC

Team pages: Pocheon Citizen FC · Ulsan Citizen FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

Pocheon Citizen FC1.53

Ulsan Citizen FC0.72

1X2

57% 25% 18%

Pocheon Citizen FC Draw Ulsan Citizen FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Pocheon Citizen FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Ulsan Citizen FC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLWLLD

Head-to-head

Pocheon Citizen FC 3–2–1 Ulsan Citizen FC (6 last)

Ulsan Citizen FC0-1Pocheon Citizen FC
Pocheon Citizen FC0-0Ulsan Citizen FC
Ulsan Citizen FC1-2Pocheon Citizen FC
Pocheon Citizen FC2-1Ulsan Citizen FC
Ulsan Citizen FC2-2Pocheon Citizen FC
Pocheon Citizen FC2-3Ulsan Citizen FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pocheon Citizen FC 1563 · Ulsan Citizen FC 1486

	Pocheon Citizen FC	Draw	Ulsan Citizen FC
Our model	55%	28%	16%
Market	58%	23%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pocheon Citizen FC (rating 1563 vs 1486).
H2H favours Pocheon Citizen FC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pocheon Citizen FC	Ulsan Citizen FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.9	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.8	2.5 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.55

X3.90

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:56 +15’	1.55	3.90	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pocheon Citizen FC 3–2–1 Ulsan Citizen FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 South Korea K League 3	Ulsan Citizen FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Pocheon Citizen FC
04/10/25 South Korea K League 3	Pocheon Citizen FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Ulsan Citizen FC
06/06/25 South Korea K League 3	Ulsan Citizen FC	1-2 HT 0-0	Pocheon Citizen FC
02/11/24 South Korea K League 3	Pocheon Citizen FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Ulsan Citizen FC
22/06/24 South Korea K League 3	Ulsan Citizen FC	2-2 HT 0-1	Pocheon Citizen FC
05/11/23 South Korea K League 3	Pocheon Citizen FC	2-3 HT 1-1	Ulsan Citizen FC

Standings · South Korea K League 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Siheung City AC	25	17	5	3	38	22	56
2	Pocheon Citizen FC	25	14	8	3	43	22	50
3	Daejeon Korail	25	13	5	7	36	20	44
4	Busan Trans Corp	25	11	7	7	42	31	40
5	Gyeongju HNP	25	9	10	6	39	35	37
6	Chuncheon FC	25	10	6	9	43	37	36
7	Dangjin Citizen FC	25	10	5	10	47	39	35
8	Gangneung City	25	9	6	10	26	33	33
9	Changwon City	25	7	9	9	27	31	30
10	Ulsan Citizen FC	25	8	5	12	25	28	29
11	Yeoju	25	7	8	10	30	34	29
12	Mokpo City	25	5	10	10	24	40	25
13	Yangpyeong FC	25	4	8	13	30	49	20
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	25	1	8	16	27	56	11

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pocheon Citizen FC	Ulsan Citizen FC
Jeonbuk Motors II	2-2 D	1-0 W
Changwon City	3-1 W	0-0 D
Chuncheon FC	0-0 D	1-2 L
Busan Trans Corp	0-1 L	2-1 W
Yangpyeong FC	2-0 W	1-2 L
Yeoju	1-0 W	1-0 W
Siheung City AC	2-3 L	1-2 L
Mokpo City	2-0 W	4-1 W
Daejeon Korail	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 2 L	5 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Ulsan Citizen FC (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Pocheon Citizen FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K League 3	1-1	2-2	10	0	D
10/10	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	0-0	3-1	2	4	W
03/10	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
19/09	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	11	3	L
13/09	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
06/09	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
30/08	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	0-3	2-3	6	5	L
22/08	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
25/07	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
11/07	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-1	8	2	D

Ulsan Citizen FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Changwon City South Korea K League 3	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
09/10	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-2	1	3	L
03/10	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-2	7	8	L
11/09	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
05/09	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-2	3	7	L
30/08	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
23/08	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
26/07	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
10/07	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
27/06	Mokpo City South Korea K League 3	1-0	4-1	6	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pocheon Citizen FC vs Ulsan Citizen FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pocheon Citizen FC win (57%). Probabilities: Pocheon Citizen FC 57%, draw 25%, Ulsan Citizen FC 18%.

How many goals are expected in Pocheon Citizen FC vs Ulsan Citizen FC?

The model expects 2.25 goals (Pocheon Citizen FC 1.53 · Ulsan Citizen FC 0.72), with a 59% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Pocheon Citizen FC vs Ulsan Citizen FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.