Football · South Korea K3 League · 29/08, 12:00

Prediction: Gangneung City vs Jeonbuk Motors II

Team pages: Gangneung City · Jeonbuk Motors II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Gangneung City1.81

Jeonbuk Motors II1.13

1X2

52% 25% 23%

Gangneung City Draw Jeonbuk Motors II

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Gangneung City 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Jeonbuk Motors II 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Gangneung City 2–1 Jeonbuk Motors II (3 last)

Jeonbuk Motors II0-2Gangneung City
Gangneung City3-1Jeonbuk Motors II
Jeonbuk Motors II2-1Gangneung City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gangneung City 1490 · Jeonbuk Motors II 1404

	Gangneung City	Draw	Jeonbuk Motors II
Our model	52%	25%	23%
Market	52%	26%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gangneung City (rating 1490 vs 1404).
H2H favours Gangneung City: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gangneung City	Jeonbuk Motors II
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.7	0.8 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.9	0.2 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	0/30/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.7	1.3 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	2.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.50

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.64
2	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.81 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
10:50 +8’	1.73	3.50	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:59	1.64	3.64	4.81

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gangneung City 2–0–1 Jeonbuk Motors II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 South Korea K3 League	Jeonbuk Motors II	0-2 HT 0-1	Gangneung City
13/07/25 South Korea K3 League	Gangneung City	3-1 HT 2-0	Jeonbuk Motors II
16/03/25 South Korea K3 League	Jeonbuk Motors II	2-1 HT 1-0	Gangneung City

Standings · South Korea K3 League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Siheung City AC	19	13	4	2	26	15	43
2	Pocheon Citizen FC	19	11	6	2	33	16	39
3	Busan Trans Corp	19	10	6	3	34	18	36
4	Daejeon Korail	19	9	5	5	28	15	32
5	Dangjin Citizen FC	20	8	4	8	36	29	28
6	Changwon City	19	6	8	5	22	21	26
7	Yeoju	19	6	7	6	23	24	25
8	Gyeongju HNP	19	5	8	6	27	27	23
9	Gangneung City	19	6	5	8	17	27	23
10	Ulsan Citizen FC	19	6	4	9	19	21	22
11	Chuncheon FC	19	5	5	9	32	31	20
12	Yangpyeong FC	19	3	8	8	25	36	17
13	Mokpo City	19	2	9	8	15	33	15
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	20	1	7	12	20	44	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gangneung City	Jeonbuk Motors II
Chuncheon FC	1-0 W	1-6 L
Dangjin Citizen FC	2-5 L	0-2 L
Pocheon Citizen FC	1-3 L	1-5 L
Ulsan Citizen FC	2-1 W	0-1 L
Changwon City	0-1 L	1-1 D
Yangpyeong FC	1-0 W	2-5 L
Siheung City AC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Daejeon Korail	0-3 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	0 W 2 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Gangneung City (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gangneung City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
25/07	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
11/07	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
28/06	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-3	2-5	6	1	L
21/06	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-3	3	4	L
06/06	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
30/05	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
23/05	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
17/05	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-1	2	2	D
10/05	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-3	4	3	L

Jeonbuk Motors II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
26/07	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	1-1	1-1	2	0	D
18/07	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
12/07	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	1-2	2-5	2	4	L
27/06	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
20/06	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-4	4	3	L
06/06	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-1	2	2	D
30/05	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
23/05	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-3	1-5	1	5	L
16/05	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	0-3	1-6	4	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gangneung City vs Jeonbuk Motors II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gangneung City win (52%). Probabilities: Gangneung City 52%, draw 25%, Jeonbuk Motors II 23%.

How many goals are expected in Gangneung City vs Jeonbuk Motors II?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Gangneung City 1.81 · Jeonbuk Motors II 1.13), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Gangneung City vs Jeonbuk Motors II?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.