Football · South Korea K3 League · 29/08, 11:00

Prediction: Dangjin Citizen FC vs Chuncheon FC

Team pages: Dangjin Citizen FC · Chuncheon FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

Dangjin Citizen FC1.78

Chuncheon FC1.41

1X2

45% 26% 29%

Dangjin Citizen FC Draw Chuncheon FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Dangjin Citizen FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLDWDWWL

Chuncheon FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDDLDDWL

Head-to-head

Dangjin Citizen FC 2–1 Chuncheon FC (3 last)

Chuncheon FC0-1Dangjin Citizen FC
Dangjin Citizen FC0-2Chuncheon FC
Chuncheon FC1-3Dangjin Citizen FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dangjin Citizen FC 1539 · Chuncheon FC 1463

	Dangjin Citizen FC	Draw	Chuncheon FC
Our model	45%	25%	30%
Market	45%	26%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dangjin Citizen FC (rating 1539 vs 1463).
H2H favours Dangjin Citizen FC: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dangjin Citizen FC	Chuncheon FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.3	2.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.7	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.2	1.3 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.4	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.40

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 1.2 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.27 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.49
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
10:45 +12’	2.00	3.40	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:57	2.27	3.49	2.74

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dangjin Citizen FC 2–0–1 Chuncheon FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 South Korea K3 League	Chuncheon FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Dangjin Citizen FC
13/11/22 South Korea K3 League	Dangjin Citizen FC	0-2 HT 0-2	Chuncheon FC
30/10/21 South Korea K4 League	Chuncheon FC	1-3 HT 0-2	Dangjin Citizen FC

Standings · South Korea K3 League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Siheung City AC	19	13	4	2	26	15	43
2	Pocheon Citizen FC	19	11	6	2	33	16	39
3	Busan Trans Corp	19	10	6	3	34	18	36
4	Daejeon Korail	19	9	5	5	28	15	32
5	Dangjin Citizen FC	20	8	4	8	36	29	28
6	Changwon City	19	6	8	5	22	21	26
7	Yeoju	19	6	7	6	23	24	25
8	Gyeongju HNP	19	5	8	6	27	27	23
9	Gangneung City	19	6	5	8	17	27	23
10	Ulsan Citizen FC	19	6	4	9	19	21	22
11	Chuncheon FC	19	5	5	9	32	31	20
12	Yangpyeong FC	19	3	8	8	25	36	17
13	Mokpo City	19	2	9	8	15	33	15
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	20	1	7	12	20	44	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dangjin Citizen FC	Chuncheon FC
Jeonbuk Motors II	2-0 W	6-1 W
Pocheon Citizen FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Gangneung City	5-2 W	0-1 L
Ulsan Citizen FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Changwon City	1-2 L	1-1 D
Yangpyeong FC	3-1 W	3-3 D
Siheung City AC	1-2 L	2-3 L
Daejeon Korail	0-1 L	3-3 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Chuncheon FC (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dangjin Citizen FC

LLWLDWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
25/07	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	2-1	6-1	3	4	W
18/07	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-0	8	3	W
11/07	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
28/06	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	3-1	5-2	2	1	W
20/06	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
06/06	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-2	2	1	L
30/05	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	1-1	3-1	6	6	W
23/05	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	1-2	1-2	4	3	L
16/05	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-1	9	3	L

Chuncheon FC

LWWDDLDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
26/07	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-1	3	7	W
12/07	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
27/06	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	3-3	2	6	D
20/06	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	2-2	2-3	2	2	L
06/06	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	2-2	3-3	1	6	D
30/05	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	0-1	2-2	3	2	D
23/05	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	1-2	3-2	7	2	W
16/05	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	3-0	6-1	5	0	W
09/05	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dangjin Citizen FC vs Chuncheon FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dangjin Citizen FC win (45%). Probabilities: Dangjin Citizen FC 45%, draw 26%, Chuncheon FC 29%.

How many goals are expected in Dangjin Citizen FC vs Chuncheon FC?

The model expects 3.19 goals (Dangjin Citizen FC 1.78 · Chuncheon FC 1.41), with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Dangjin Citizen FC vs Chuncheon FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.