Football · South Korea K3 League · 29/08, 12:00

Prediction: Daejeon Korail vs Yangpyeong FC

Team pages: Daejeon Korail · Yangpyeong FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.01Total

Daejeon Korail1.92

Yangpyeong FC1.09

1X2

55% 25% 20%

Daejeon Korail Draw Yangpyeong FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Daejeon Korail 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Yangpyeong FC 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Daejeon Korail 4–2 Yangpyeong FC (6 last)

Yangpyeong FC0-3Daejeon Korail
Yangpyeong FC1-2Daejeon Korail
Daejeon Korail1-0Yangpyeong FC
Daejeon Korail3-1Yangpyeong FC
Yangpyeong FC1-0Daejeon Korail
Yangpyeong FC2-0Daejeon Korail

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Daejeon Korail 1540 · Yangpyeong FC 1438

	Daejeon Korail	Draw	Yangpyeong FC
Our model	56%	24%	20%
Market	55%	25%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daejeon Korail (rating 1540 vs 1438).
H2H favours Daejeon Korail: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Daejeon Korail	Yangpyeong FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.8	1.6 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.3	2.4 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.60

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Pinn 1.74 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
09:17 +3’	1.61	3.60	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:58	1.74	3.51	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Daejeon Korail 4–0–2 Yangpyeong FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 South Korea K3 League	Yangpyeong FC	0-3 HT 0-1	Daejeon Korail
01/11/25 South Korea K3 League	Yangpyeong FC	1-2 HT 0-1	Daejeon Korail
22/06/25 South Korea K3 League	Daejeon Korail	1-0 HT 0-0	Yangpyeong FC
08/09/24 South Korea K3 League	Daejeon Korail	3-1 HT 1-1	Yangpyeong FC
12/05/24 South Korea K3 League	Yangpyeong FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Daejeon Korail
09/09/23 South Korea K3 League	Yangpyeong FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Daejeon Korail

Standings · South Korea K3 League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Siheung City AC	19	13	4	2	26	15	43
2	Pocheon Citizen FC	19	11	6	2	33	16	39
3	Busan Trans Corp	19	10	6	3	34	18	36
4	Daejeon Korail	19	9	5	5	28	15	32
5	Dangjin Citizen FC	20	8	4	8	36	29	28
6	Changwon City	19	6	8	5	22	21	26
7	Yeoju	19	6	7	6	23	24	25
8	Gyeongju HNP	19	5	8	6	27	27	23
9	Gangneung City	19	6	5	8	17	27	23
10	Ulsan Citizen FC	19	6	4	9	19	21	22
11	Chuncheon FC	19	5	5	9	32	31	20
12	Yangpyeong FC	19	3	8	8	25	36	17
13	Mokpo City	19	2	9	8	15	33	15
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	20	1	7	12	20	44	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Daejeon Korail	Yangpyeong FC
Gyeongju HNP	0-1 L	3-3 D
Busan Trans Corp	1-0 W	2-4 L
Jeonbuk Motors II	4-0 W	5-2 W
Chuncheon FC	3-3 D	3-3 D
Yeoju	0-1 L	1-2 L
Mokpo City	3-0 W	0-0 D
Dangjin Citizen FC	1-0 W	1-3 L
Gangneung City	3-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Daejeon Korail (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Daejeon Korail

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-2	1	7	L
25/07	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
11/07	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
28/06	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
20/06	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-0	4-0	2	3	W
06/06	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	2-2	3-3	3	6	D
31/05	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
23/05	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	1-0	3-0	3	1	W
16/05	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
10/05	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	1-0	3-0	6	3	W

Yangpyeong FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	0-2	3-3	5	3	D
26/07	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	2-1	2-4	2	4	L
12/07	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	2-1	5-2	4	4	W
27/06	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	3-3	2	6	D
20/06	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-2	8	9	L
07/06	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-0	2	8	D
30/05	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-1	1-3	3	6	L
23/05	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
16/05	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
09/05	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-0	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Daejeon Korail vs Yangpyeong FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Daejeon Korail win (55%). Probabilities: Daejeon Korail 55%, draw 25%, Yangpyeong FC 20%.

How many goals are expected in Daejeon Korail vs Yangpyeong FC?

The model expects 3.01 goals (Daejeon Korail 1.92 · Yangpyeong FC 1.09), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Daejeon Korail vs Yangpyeong FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.