Football · China Super League · 08/11, 08:30
Prediction: Shanghai Port vs Liaoning Ironman
Team pages: Shanghai Port · Liaoning Ironman
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.94Total
Shanghai Port2.77
Liaoning Ironman1.17
1X2
Shanghai Port
Draw
Liaoning Ironman
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Shanghai Port
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Liaoning Ironman
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Shanghai Port
3–1–2
Liaoning Ironman
(6 last)
- Liaoning Ironman3-2Shanghai Port
- Liaoning Ironman3-3Shanghai Port
- Shanghai Port4-1Liaoning Ironman
- Liaoning Ironman3-1Shanghai Port
- Shanghai Port4-0Liaoning Ironman
- Shanghai Port2-1Liaoning Ironman
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shanghai Port 1583 · Liaoning Ironman 1447
| Shanghai Port | Draw | Liaoning Ironman | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 17% | 13% |
| Market | 70% | 18% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.94 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shanghai Port (rating 1583 vs 1447).
- H2H favours Shanghai Port: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Shanghai Port | Liaoning Ironman | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1 | 1.6 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6.2 | 2.5 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.1 | 3.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Shanghai Port 3–1–2 Liaoning Ironman
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/26 China Super League | Liaoning Ironman | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Shanghai Port |
| 14/10/17 China Super League | Liaoning Ironman | 3-3 HT 2-3 | Shanghai Port |
| 03/06/17 China Super League | Shanghai Port | 4-1 HT 0-0 | Liaoning Ironman |
| 23/07/16 China Super League | Liaoning Ironman | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Shanghai Port |
| 10/04/16 China Super League | Shanghai Port | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Liaoning Ironman |
| 31/10/15 China Super League | Shanghai Port | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Liaoning Ironman |
Standings · China Super League
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Rongcheng | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 51 | 35 | 52 |
| 2 | Dalian Young Boy | 29 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 46 | 43 | 49 |
| 3 | Beijing Guoan | 29 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 57 | 36 | 47 |
| 4 | Shandong Taishan | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 57 | 47 | 44 |
| 5 | Shanghai Port | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 50 | 36 | 42 |
| 6 | Yunnan Yukun | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 57 | 60 | 40 |
| 7 | Qingdao West Coast | 29 | 8 | 15 | 6 | 32 | 38 | 39 |
| 8 | Shanghai Shenhua | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 63 | 50 | 37 |
| 9 | Chongqing Tonglianglong | 29 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 31 | 34 | 36 |
| 10 | Zhejiang | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 51 | 54 | 34 |
| 11 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 39 | 51 | 32 |
| 12 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 39 | 35 | 31 |
| 13 | Liaoning Ironman | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | 41 | 52 | 29 |
| 14 | Henan | 29 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 38 | 42 | 28 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 29 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 44 | 55 | 22 |
| 16 | Qingdao Hainiu | 29 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 34 | 62 | 14 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Shanghai Port | Liaoning Ironman |
|---|---|---|
| Tianjin Jinmen Tigers | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Chengdu Rongcheng | 3-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Zhejiang | 4-2 W | 2-4 L |
| Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Qingdao Hainiu | 2-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Dalian Young Boy | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Wuhan Three Towns | 3-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 6 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Shanghai Port (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shanghai Port
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers China Super League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 18/10 | Chengdu Rongcheng China Super League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 09/10 | Zhejiang China Super League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | Beijing Guoan China Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 14 | 1 | D |
| 28/08 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng China Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 23/08 | Qingdao Hainiu China Super League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 19/08 | Dalian Young Boy China Super League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 14/08 | Wuhan Three Towns China Super League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 09/08 | Chongqing Tonglianglong China Super League |
2-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Shandong Taishan China Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 5 | L |
Liaoning Ironman
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Zhejiang China Super League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 17/10 | Qingdao Hainiu China Super League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 11/10 | Wuhan Three Towns China Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 12/09 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers China Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 06/09 | Yunnan Yukun China Super League |
0-2 | 0-5 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Chengdu Rongcheng China Super League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Henan China Super League |
0-2 | 4-4 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 15/08 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng China Super League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 08/08 | Dalian Young Boy China Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 02/08 | Shanghai Shenhua China Super League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shanghai Port vs Liaoning Ironman?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Shanghai Port win (70%). Probabilities: Shanghai Port 70%, draw 17%, Liaoning Ironman 13%.
How many goals are expected in Shanghai Port vs Liaoning Ironman?
The model expects 3.94 goals (Shanghai Port 2.77 · Liaoning Ironman 1.17), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Port vs Liaoning Ironman?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.