Football · China Super League · 08/11, 08:30

Prediction: Qingdao Hainiu vs Shenzhen Xinpengcheng

Team pages: Qingdao Hainiu · Shenzhen Xinpengcheng

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Qingdao Hainiu1.08

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng2.15

1X2

17% 22% 61%

Qingdao Hainiu Draw Shenzhen Xinpengcheng

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Qingdao Hainiu 0-0-10 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLLL

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWDLDDLW

Head-to-head

Qingdao Hainiu 3–3 Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (6 last)

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng3-2Qingdao Hainiu
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng4-0Qingdao Hainiu
Qingdao Hainiu0-1Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
Qingdao Hainiu1-0Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng1-3Qingdao Hainiu
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng0-2Qingdao Hainiu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Qingdao Hainiu 1364 · Shenzhen Xinpengcheng 1498

	Qingdao Hainiu	Draw	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
Our model	17%	22%	61%
Market	18%	21%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (rating 1364 vs 1498).
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Qingdao Hainiu	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 2.6	1.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.4	0.2 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/20/80%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.3	1.5 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

15.25

X4.33

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)2.00

2 (-1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.37
2	1.50 → 1.50	Pinn 1.65 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:05 +13’	5.25	4.33	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:15 +3’	4.48	4.37	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Qingdao Hainiu 3–0–3 Shenzhen Xinpengcheng

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 China Super League	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng	3-2 HT 1-0	Qingdao Hainiu
19/07/25 China Super League	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng	4-0 HT 2-0	Qingdao Hainiu
01/03/25 China Super League	Qingdao Hainiu	0-1 HT 0-0	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
17/08/24 China Super League	Qingdao Hainiu	1-0 HT 1-0	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
26/04/24 China Super League	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng	1-3 HT 0-3	Qingdao Hainiu
19/09/22 China Division 1	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng	0-2 HT 0-1	Qingdao Hainiu

Standings · China Super League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chengdu Rongcheng	29	15	7	7	51	35	52
2	Dalian Young Boy	29	15	4	10	46	43	49
3	Beijing Guoan	29	14	10	5	57	36	47
4	Shandong Taishan	29	15	5	9	57	47	44
5	Shanghai Port	29	13	8	8	50	36	42
6	Yunnan Yukun	29	11	7	11	57	60	40
7	Qingdao West Coast	29	8	15	6	32	38	39
8	Shanghai Shenhua	29	14	5	10	63	50	37
9	Chongqing Tonglianglong	29	8	12	9	31	34	36
10	Zhejiang	29	11	6	12	51	54	34
11	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng	29	9	5	15	39	51	32
12	Tianjin Jinmen Tigers	29	11	8	10	39	35	31
13	Liaoning Ironman	29	8	5	16	41	52	29
14	Henan	29	8	10	11	38	42	28
15	Wuhan Three Towns	29	5	12	12	44	55	22
16	Qingdao Hainiu	29	6	3	20	34	62	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Qingdao Hainiu	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
Chongqing Tonglianglong	0-2 L	2-0 W
Liaoning Ironman	0-4 L	2-1 W
Beijing Guoan	0-3 L	0-4 L
Dalian Young Boy	1-2 L	1-3 L
Shanghai Port	1-2 L	0-1 L
Shandong Taishan	1-3 L	1-1 D
Shanghai Shenhua	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 7 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Qingdao Hainiu

LLLLLLLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Chongqing Tonglianglong China Super League	0-2	0-2	8	2	L
17/10	Liaoning Ironman China Super League	0-1	0-4	4	4	L
09/10	Beijing Guoan China Super League	0-2	0-3	2	3	L
05/09	Dalian Young Boy China Super League	1-2	1-2	4	2	L
29/08	Wuhan Three Towns China Super League	0-2	1-5	7	5	L
23/08	Shanghai Port China Super League	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
14/08	Shandong Taishan China Super League	1-2	1-3	4	3	L
08/08	Shanghai Shenhua China Super League	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
02/08	Qingdao West Coast China Super League	0-1	0-2	1	5	L
25/07	Tianjin Jinmen Tigers China Super League	0-1	0-2	5	4	L

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng

LWLWDLDDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Shanghai Shenhua China Super League	0-0	2-1	1	4	W
17/10	Dalian Young Boy China Super League	0-2	1-3	9	0	L
09/10	Henan China Super League	0-1	2-2	1	5	D
05/09	Shandong Taishan China Super League	0-1	1-1	2	4	D
28/08	Shanghai Port China Super League	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
22/08	Zhejiang China Super League	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
15/08	Liaoning Ironman China Super League	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
07/08	Beijing Guoan China Super League	0-2	0-4	5	5	L
02/08	Chongqing Tonglianglong China Super League	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
26/07	Yunnan Yukun China Super League	1-2	3-4	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Qingdao Hainiu vs Shenzhen Xinpengcheng?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Shenzhen Xinpengcheng win (61%). Probabilities: Qingdao Hainiu 17%, draw 22%, Shenzhen Xinpengcheng 61%.

How many goals are expected in Qingdao Hainiu vs Shenzhen Xinpengcheng?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Qingdao Hainiu 1.08 · Shenzhen Xinpengcheng 2.15), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Qingdao Hainiu vs Shenzhen Xinpengcheng?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.