Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 10/10, 13:30

Prediction: Parnu JK Vaprus vs JK Trans Narva

Team pages: Parnu JK Vaprus · JK Trans Narva

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Parnu JK Vaprus1.58

JK Trans Narva1.34

1X2

43% 26% 32%

Parnu JK Vaprus Draw JK Trans Narva

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Parnu JK Vaprus 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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JK Trans Narva 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WWLDLLLDLD

Head-to-head

Parnu JK Vaprus 1–2–3 JK Trans Narva (6 last)

JK Trans Narva3-1Parnu JK Vaprus
Parnu JK Vaprus2-0JK Trans Narva
JK Trans Narva2-1Parnu JK Vaprus
Parnu JK Vaprus0-2JK Trans Narva
JK Trans Narva1-1Parnu JK Vaprus
Parnu JK Vaprus0-0JK Trans Narva

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Parnu JK Vaprus 1455 · JK Trans Narva 1492

	Parnu JK Vaprus	Draw	JK Trans Narva
Our model	42%	27%	31%
Market	43%	24%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours JK Trans Narva: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Parnu JK Vaprus	JK Trans Narva
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.2	1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.2	2 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.70

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
01:52 +16’	2.10	3.70	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Parnu JK Vaprus 1–2–3 JK Trans Narva

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	3-1 HT 2-0	Parnu JK Vaprus
09/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	2-0 HT 1-0	JK Trans Narva
21/03/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	2-1 HT 1-1	Parnu JK Vaprus
15/02/26 Europe Friendlies	Parnu JK Vaprus	0-2 HT 0-0	JK Trans Narva
18/10/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	1-1 HT 1-0	Parnu JK Vaprus
12/07/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	0-0 HT 0-0	JK Trans Narva

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	29	22	6	1	81	21	72
2	FC Flora Tallinn	29	18	1	10	59	39	55
3	Paide Linnameeskond	29	15	6	8	48	36	51
4	JK Nomme Kalju	29	15	5	9	52	27	50
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	29	14	2	13	37	47	44
6	Harju JK Laagri	29	11	2	16	40	47	35
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	29	10	4	15	39	57	34
8	FC Kuressaare	29	8	5	16	31	49	29
9	JK Nomme United	29	9	1	19	47	68	28
10	JK Trans Narva	29	5	4	20	22	65	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Parnu JK Vaprus	JK Trans Narva
FC Flora Tallinn	2-3 L	2-2 D
Paide Linnameeskond	0-2 L	1-1 D
FC Levadia Tallinn	0-4 L	1-1 D
JK Nomme United	1-0 W	2-1 W
FC Kuressaare	2-2 D	1-3 L
JK Nomme Kalju	1-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: JK Trans Narva (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Parnu JK Vaprus

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	2-3	1	0	L
16/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
12/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-3	0-4	5	4	L
09/09	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
05/09	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
29/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
23/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	1	2	L
16/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	3	5	L
02/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	0	5	D
18/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	8	3	L

JK Trans Narva

WWLDLLLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
12/09	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
08/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	2-2	2-2	2	6	D
05/09	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	2	5	L
30/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
21/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-4	1	2	L
16/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
08/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
31/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	2	4	W
18/07	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Parnu JK Vaprus vs JK Trans Narva?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Parnu JK Vaprus win (43%). Probabilities: Parnu JK Vaprus 43%, draw 26%, JK Trans Narva 32%.

How many goals are expected in Parnu JK Vaprus vs JK Trans Narva?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Parnu JK Vaprus 1.58 · JK Trans Narva 1.34), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Parnu JK Vaprus vs JK Trans Narva?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.