Football · Japan L1 League Women · 18/10, 06:00

Prediction: Vonds Ichihara (W) vs Iga FC Kunoichi (W)

Team pages: Vonds Ichihara (W) · Iga FC Kunoichi (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

Vonds Ichihara (W)0.96

Iga FC Kunoichi (W)1.76

1X2

20% 25% 55%

Vonds Ichihara (W) Draw Iga FC Kunoichi (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Vonds Ichihara (W) 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Iga FC Kunoichi (W) 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWDWLLWW

Head-to-head

Vonds Ichihara (W) 0–1 Iga FC Kunoichi (W) (1 last)

Iga FC Kunoichi (W)2-1Vonds Ichihara (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vonds Ichihara (W) 1472 · Iga FC Kunoichi (W) 1542

	Vonds Ichihara (W)	Draw	Iga FC Kunoichi (W)
Our model	19%	26%	55%
Market	20%	24%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Iga FC Kunoichi (W) (rating 1472 vs 1542).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vonds Ichihara (W)	Iga FC Kunoichi (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.4	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.2	2.8 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1 / 0	0.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.50

X3.70

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.98

2 (-0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 4.50▼	Bet365 4.50
X	4.10 → 3.70▼	Bet365 3.70
2	1.50 → 1.61▲	Pinn 1.67 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
19:21 +13’	5.00	4.10	1.50
21:06 +7’	4.50▼	3.70▼	1.61▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:12 +22’	4.85	3.68	1.59
20:55 +19’	4.46▼	3.54▼	1.67▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vonds Ichihara (W) 0–0–1 Iga FC Kunoichi (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Japan L1 League Women	Iga FC Kunoichi (W)	2-1 HT 1-1	Vonds Ichihara (W)

Standings · Japan L1 League Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shizuoka SSU Bonita (W)	21	12	5	4	52	15	41
2	Loveledge Nagoya (W)	21	11	6	4	42	20	39
3	Orca Kamogawa FC (W)	20	10	6	4	28	15	36
4	Viamaterras Miyazaki (W)	20	10	5	5	36	26	35
5	Iga FC Kunoichi (W)	20	10	5	5	28	19	35
6	Yokohama FC Seagulls (W)	20	9	4	7	35	29	31
7	Okayama Yunogo Belle (W)	20	8	4	8	30	34	28
8	Ehime FC (W)	20	7	4	9	24	38	25
9	Setagaya Sfida (W)	20	6	5	9	29	33	23
10	AS Harima Albion (W)	20	5	5	10	20	30	20
11	Nittaidai FC (W)	20	4	1	15	20	56	13
12	Vonds Ichihara (W)	20	3	2	15	13	42	11

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vonds Ichihara (W)	Iga FC Kunoichi (W)
Yokohama FC Seagulls (W)	1-1 D	0-2 L
Setagaya Sfida (W)	0-1 L	2-1 W
Orca Kamogawa FC (W)	2-0 W	0-0 D
Ehime FC (W)	2-0 W	2-3 L
Nittaidai FC (W)	2-1 W	3-0 W
Loveledge Nagoya (W)	0-0 D	1-2 L
Viamaterras Miyazaki (W)	1-3 L	0-0 D
Okayama Yunogo Belle (W)	0-2 L	4-1 W
AS Harima Albion (W)	0-1 L	3-1 W
Shizuoka SSU Bonita (W)	1-5 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 5 L	5 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Iga FC Kunoichi (W) (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vonds Ichihara (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Yokohama FC Seagulls (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-0	1-1	4	0	D
26/09	Setagaya Sfida (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-0	0-1	10	1	L
20/09	Orca Kamogawa FC (W) Japan L1 League Women	2-0	2-0	6	0	W
12/09	Ehime FC (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-0	2-0	2	0	W
06/09	Nittaidai FC (W) Japan L1 League Women	2-0	2-1	4	1	W
28/06	Loveledge Nagoya (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
21/06	Viamaterras Miyazaki (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-1	1-3	1	0	L
13/06	Okayama Yunogo Belle (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
06/06	AS Harima Albion (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
23/05	Shizuoka SSU Bonita (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-4	1-5	3	1	L

Iga FC Kunoichi (W)

WDLWDWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	AS Harima Albion (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-0	3-1	8	0	W
27/09	Okayama Yunogo Belle (W) Japan L1 League Women	2-1	4-1	9	2	W
20/09	Ehime FC (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-1	2-3	13	0	L
13/09	Yokohama FC Seagulls (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-1	0-2	5	0	L
05/09	Setagaya Sfida (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-0	2-1	3	0	W
27/06	Viamaterras Miyazaki (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-0	0-0	6	0	D
21/06	Shizuoka SSU Bonita (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-0	1-0	6	0	W
13/06	Loveledge Nagoya (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-1	1-2	4	1	L
07/06	Orca Kamogawa FC (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-0	0-0	2	0	D
23/05	Nittaidai FC (W) Japan L1 League Women	2-0	3-0	1	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vonds Ichihara (W) vs Iga FC Kunoichi (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Iga FC Kunoichi (W) win (55%). Probabilities: Vonds Ichihara (W) 20%, draw 25%, Iga FC Kunoichi (W) 55%.

How many goals are expected in Vonds Ichihara (W) vs Iga FC Kunoichi (W)?

The model expects 2.73 goals (Vonds Ichihara (W) 0.96 · Iga FC Kunoichi (W) 1.76), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Vonds Ichihara (W) vs Iga FC Kunoichi (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.