Football · Japan L1 League Women · 25/10, 05:00

Prediction: Okayama Yunogo Belle (W) vs Loveledge Nagoya (W)

Team pages: Okayama Yunogo Belle (W) · Loveledge Nagoya (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Okayama Yunogo Belle (W)1.02

Loveledge Nagoya (W)1.85

1X2

20% 24% 56%

Okayama Yunogo Belle (W) Draw Loveledge Nagoya (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Okayama Yunogo Belle (W) 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Loveledge Nagoya (W) 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Okayama Yunogo Belle (W) 1–3 Loveledge Nagoya (W) (4 last)

Loveledge Nagoya (W)2-0Okayama Yunogo Belle (W)
Loveledge Nagoya (W)1-2Okayama Yunogo Belle (W)
Okayama Yunogo Belle (W)0-1Loveledge Nagoya (W)
Loveledge Nagoya (W)3-0Okayama Yunogo Belle (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Okayama Yunogo Belle (W) 1481 · Loveledge Nagoya (W) 1532

	Okayama Yunogo Belle (W)	Draw	Loveledge Nagoya (W)
Our model	20%	25%	56%
Market	20%	24%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Loveledge Nagoya (W) (rating 1481 vs 1532).
H2H favours Loveledge Nagoya (W): 3-0-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Okayama Yunogo Belle (W)	Loveledge Nagoya (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.6	1.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 1	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.7	2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.2 / 0	1.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.50

X3.75

21.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
07:43 +5’	4.50	3.75	1.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Okayama Yunogo Belle (W) 1–0–3 Loveledge Nagoya (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Japan L1 League Women	Loveledge Nagoya (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Okayama Yunogo Belle (W)
27/09/25 Japan L1 League Women	Loveledge Nagoya (W)	1-2 HT 1-2	Okayama Yunogo Belle (W)
25/05/25 Japan L1 League Women	Okayama Yunogo Belle (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Loveledge Nagoya (W)
21/04/19 Japan Challenge League Women	Loveledge Nagoya (W)	3-0 HT 1-0	Okayama Yunogo Belle (W)

Standings · Japan L1 League Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shizuoka SSU Bonita (W)	21	12	5	4	52	15	41
2	Loveledge Nagoya (W)	21	11	6	4	42	20	39
3	Orca Kamogawa FC (W)	21	11	6	4	29	15	39
4	Iga FC Kunoichi (W)	21	10	6	5	29	20	36
5	Viamaterras Miyazaki (W)	21	10	5	6	38	30	35
6	Yokohama FC Seagulls (W)	21	9	5	7	38	32	32
7	Okayama Yunogo Belle (W)	21	8	4	9	31	36	28
8	Setagaya Sfida (W)	21	7	5	9	33	35	26
9	Ehime FC (W)	21	7	5	9	27	41	26
10	AS Harima Albion (W)	21	5	5	11	20	31	20
11	Nittaidai FC (W)	21	5	1	15	22	57	16
12	Vonds Ichihara (W)	21	3	3	15	14	43	12

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Okayama Yunogo Belle (W)	Loveledge Nagoya (W)
Nittaidai FC (W)	1-2 L	3-1 W
Shizuoka SSU Bonita (W)	1-1 D	0-0 D
Iga FC Kunoichi (W)	1-4 L	2-1 W
Viamaterras Miyazaki (W)	5-1 W	2-0 W
AS Harima Albion (W)	0-0 D	2-1 W
Orca Kamogawa FC (W)	1-5 L	0-1 L
Ehime FC (W)	1-2 L	6-0 W
Setagaya Sfida (W)	2-0 W	0-2 L
Vonds Ichihara (W)	2-0 W	0-0 D
Yokohama FC Seagulls (W)	4-1 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 4 L	5 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Loveledge Nagoya (W) (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Okayama Yunogo Belle (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Nittaidai FC (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-0	1-2	0	2	L
04/10	Shizuoka SSU Bonita (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-1	1-1	8	1	D
27/09	Iga FC Kunoichi (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-2	1-4	3	2	L
20/09	Viamaterras Miyazaki (W) Japan L1 League Women	3-1	5-1	1	1	W
13/09	AS Harima Albion (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
06/09	Orca Kamogawa FC (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-3	1-5	0	0	L
28/06	Ehime FC (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-2	1-2	1	0	L
21/06	Setagaya Sfida (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
13/06	Vonds Ichihara (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
07/06	Yokohama FC Seagulls (W) Japan L1 League Women	4-1	4-1	5	2	W

Loveledge Nagoya (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Shizuoka SSU Bonita (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
11/10	Orca Kamogawa FC (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
03/10	Nittaidai FC (W) Japan L1 League Women	2-1	3-1	3	1	W
19/09	AS Harima Albion (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-0	2-1	4	0	W
12/09	Setagaya Sfida (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-2	0-2	9	0	L
05/09	Yokohama FC Seagulls (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-3	0-3	2	0	L
28/06	Vonds Ichihara (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
20/06	Ehime FC (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-0	6-0	5	2	W
13/06	Iga FC Kunoichi (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-1	2-1	5	1	W
07/06	Viamaterras Miyazaki (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-0	2-0	3	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Okayama Yunogo Belle (W) vs Loveledge Nagoya (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Loveledge Nagoya (W) win (56%). Probabilities: Okayama Yunogo Belle (W) 20%, draw 24%, Loveledge Nagoya (W) 56%.

How many goals are expected in Okayama Yunogo Belle (W) vs Loveledge Nagoya (W)?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Okayama Yunogo Belle (W) 1.02 · Loveledge Nagoya (W) 1.85), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Okayama Yunogo Belle (W) vs Loveledge Nagoya (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.