Football · Brazil Serie A2 Women · 25/07, 20:00
Prediction: UD Alagoana (W) vs Doce Mel EC (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.88Total
UD Alagoana (W)1.22
Doce Mel EC (W)1.66
1X2
UD Alagoana (W)
Draw
Doce Mel EC (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
UD Alagoana (W)
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Doce Mel EC (W)
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
UD Alagoana (W)
1–1
Doce Mel EC (W)
(2 last)
- UD Alagoana (W)0-1Doce Mel EC (W)
- Doce Mel EC (W)0-1UD Alagoana (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · UD Alagoana (W) 1426 · Doce Mel EC (W) 1490
| UD Alagoana (W) | Draw | Doce Mel EC (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 26% | 47% |
| Market | 26% | 27% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Doce Mel EC (W) (rating 1426 vs 1490).
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| UD Alagoana (W) | Doce Mel EC (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 3 | 0.8 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1.7 | 0.6 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/0/70% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.8 / 2.2 | 1.3 / 1.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.3 | 3.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · UD Alagoana (W) 1–0–1 Doce Mel EC (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/25 Brazil Serie A3 Women | UD Alagoana (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Doce Mel EC (W) |
| 06/06/25 Brazil Serie A3 Women | Doce Mel EC (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | UD Alagoana (W) |
Standings · Brazil Serie A2 Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vasco da Gama (W) | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 43 | 8 | 34 |
| 2 | Itabirito (W) | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 6 | 31 |
| 3 | Minas Brasilia DF (W) | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 6 | 29 |
| 4 | Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 10 | 27 |
| 5 | Sociedade Acao (W) | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 20 |
| 6 | Sport Recife (W) | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 14 | 17 |
| 7 | 3B Sport AM (W) | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 17 |
| 8 | Perolas Negras (W) | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 18 | 16 |
| 9 | Taubate (W) | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 17 | 14 |
| 10 | Rio Negro RR (W) | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 22 | 14 |
| 11 | Ceara (W) | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 18 | 13 |
| 12 | Doce Mel EC (W) | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 13 |
| 13 | Vila Nova GO (W) | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 27 | 10 |
| 14 | Paysandu (W) | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 24 | 10 |
| 15 | Itacoatiara (W) | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 29 | 4 |
| 16 | UD Alagoana (W) | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 28 | 4 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | UD Alagoana (W) | Doce Mel EC (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Paysandu (W) | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Itabirito (W) | 0-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Perolas Negras (W) | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Ceara (W) | 1-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Doce Mel EC (W) (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
UD Alagoana (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06 | Sociedade Acao (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 28/05 | Ferroviaria (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
0-5 | 0-8 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Paysandu (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 20/05 | Itabirito (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | Itacoatiara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 13/05 | Ypiranga AP (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
2-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | Perolas Negras (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 10 | D |
| 03/05 | Ceara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
0-1 | 1-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | Minas Brasilia DF (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
0-4 | 1-5 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Taubate (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 4 | L |
Doce Mel EC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | 3B Sport AM (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 28/05 | Cruzeiro (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
0-1 | 0-5 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | Vasco da Gama (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
0-3 | 0-5 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 20/05 | Paysandu (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
3-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Perolas Negras (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 1 | W |
| 13/05 | Penarol AM (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 10/05 | Itabirito (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
0-3 | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 02/05 | Vila Nova GO (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 26/04 | Ceara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 19/04 | Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in UD Alagoana (W) vs Doce Mel EC (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Doce Mel EC (W) win (46%). Probabilities: UD Alagoana (W) 27%, draw 27%, Doce Mel EC (W) 46%.
How many goals are expected in UD Alagoana (W) vs Doce Mel EC (W)?
The model expects 2.88 goals (UD Alagoana (W) 1.22 · Doce Mel EC (W) 1.66), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in UD Alagoana (W) vs Doce Mel EC (W)?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.