Football · Brazil Serie A2 Women · 02/08, 21:00

Prediction: Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) vs Perolas Negras (W)

Team pages: Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) · Perolas Negras (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Clube Atletico Piauiense (W)2.27

Perolas Negras (W)0.79

1X2

70% 19% 11%

Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) Draw Perolas Negras (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Perolas Negras (W) 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) 1494 · Perolas Negras (W) 1499

	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W)	Draw	Perolas Negras (W)
Our model	70%	19%	11%
Market	71%	18%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W)	Perolas Negras (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6.3	2.5 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	4.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.28

X5.00

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.85

2 (+1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.3%

Time*	1	X	2
19:19 +2’	1.28	5.00	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Brazil Serie A2 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vasco da Gama (W)	13	12	1	0	46	8	37
2	Itabirito (W)	13	11	1	1	25	6	34
3	Minas Brasilia DF (W)	13	10	2	1	32	6	32
4	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W)	13	9	0	4	30	12	27
5	Sociedade Acao (W)	13	6	3	4	15	13	21
6	3B Sport AM (W)	13	5	5	3	16	10	20
7	Sport Recife (W)	13	5	3	5	13	14	18
8	Perolas Negras (W)	13	4	5	4	16	18	17
9	Taubate (W)	13	4	3	6	19	17	15
10	Rio Negro RR (W)	13	4	2	7	12	24	14
11	Ceara (W)	13	4	1	8	12	22	13
12	Paysandu (W)	13	4	1	8	11	25	13
13	Doce Mel EC (W)	13	3	4	6	10	20	13
14	Vila Nova GO (W)	13	3	1	9	12	30	10
15	UD Alagoana (W)	13	2	1	10	9	29	7
16	Itacoatiara (W)	13	1	1	11	9	33	4

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W)	Perolas Negras (W)
Sport Recife (W)	3-0 W	1-1 D
Taubate (W)	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Clube Atletico Piauiense (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Paysandu (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	1-2	11	5	L
23/07	Atletico Mineiro (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
31/05	Itabirito (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
28/05	Santos (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	1-1	6	6	D
24/05	Sport Recife (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
20/05	Taubate (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
16/05	Vila Nova GO (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
13/05	Uniao RN (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
09/05	Vasco da Gama (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	–	1-3	–	–	L
02/05	3B Sport AM (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-1	8	8	L

Perolas Negras (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Sociedade Acao (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
30/05	Itacoatiara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	2-2	11	2	D
23/05	Rio Negro RR (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	1-1	1	1	D
19/05	Minas Brasilia DF (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	1-2	5	2	L
16/05	Doce Mel EC (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	1-2	2	1	L
10/05	UD Alagoana (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	1-1	7	10	D
07/05	Sao Joao PI (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
04/05	Sport Recife (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-1	1-1	1	8	D
25/04	Taubate (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	2-0	2-1	8	8	W
18/04	Ceara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	3-1	5	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) vs Perolas Negras (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) win (70%). Probabilities: Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) 70%, draw 19%, Perolas Negras (W) 11%.

How many goals are expected in Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) vs Perolas Negras (W)?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) 2.27 · Perolas Negras (W) 0.79), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) vs Perolas Negras (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.