Football · Brazil Serie A2 Women · 01/08, 22:00

Prediction: 3B Sport AM (W) vs UD Alagoana (W)

Team pages: 3B Sport AM (W) · UD Alagoana (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.42Total

3B Sport AM (W)2.61

UD Alagoana (W)0.81

1X2

75% 17% 8%

3B Sport AM (W) Draw UD Alagoana (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

3B Sport AM (W) 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDWWDLLW

UD Alagoana (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLDWWLLLLW

Head-to-head

3B Sport AM (W) 1–1 UD Alagoana (W) (2 last)

3B Sport AM (W)7-0UD Alagoana (W)
UD Alagoana (W)1-03B Sport AM (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · 3B Sport AM (W) 1537 · UD Alagoana (W) 1459

	3B Sport AM (W)	Draw	UD Alagoana (W)
Our model	75%	16%	9%
Market	75%	17%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 3.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours 3B Sport AM (W) (rating 1537 vs 1459).
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	3B Sport AM (W)	UD Alagoana (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.7	1.2 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.3	0.4 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/0/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.4	0.9 / 2.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.20

X5.25

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.85

2 (+1.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
22:10 +18’	1.20	5.25	11.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · 3B Sport AM (W) 1–0–1 UD Alagoana (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/05/24 Brazil Campeonato Brasileiro A2 Women	3B Sport AM (W)	7-0 HT 6-0	UD Alagoana (W)
28/05/23 Brazil Campeonato Brasileiro A2 Women	UD Alagoana (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	3B Sport AM (W)

Standings · Brazil Serie A2 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vasco da Gama (W)	13	12	1	0	46	8	37
2	Itabirito (W)	13	11	1	1	25	6	34
3	Minas Brasilia DF (W)	13	10	2	1	32	6	32
4	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W)	13	9	0	4	30	12	27
5	Sociedade Acao (W)	13	6	3	4	15	13	21
6	3B Sport AM (W)	13	5	5	3	16	10	20
7	Sport Recife (W)	13	5	3	5	13	14	18
8	Perolas Negras (W)	13	4	5	4	16	18	17
9	Taubate (W)	13	4	3	6	19	17	15
10	Rio Negro RR (W)	13	4	2	7	12	24	14
11	Ceara (W)	13	4	1	8	12	22	13
12	Paysandu (W)	13	4	1	8	11	25	13
13	Doce Mel EC (W)	13	3	4	6	10	20	13
14	Vila Nova GO (W)	13	3	1	9	12	30	10
15	UD Alagoana (W)	13	2	1	10	9	29	7
16	Itacoatiara (W)	13	1	1	11	9	33	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	3B Sport AM (W)	UD Alagoana (W)
Itacoatiara (W)	4-0 W	2-1 W
Ceara (W)	1-2 L	1-3 L
Doce Mel EC (W)	0-0 D	2-1 W
Sociedade Acao (W)	2-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: 3B Sport AM (W) (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

3B Sport AM (W)

WDWDWWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Itacoatiara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	3-0	4-0	7	3	W
21/07	Flamengo (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-1	0-1	1	0	L
12/07	Ceara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-1	1-2	2	2	L
31/05	Doce Mel EC (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
27/05	Sociedade Acao (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	2-0	0	5	W
23/05	Vila Nova GO (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	3-0	3-0	3	6	W
20/05	Vasco da Gama (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	2-0	3-3	7	4	D
13/05	Taubate (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
09/05	Sport Recife (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
02/05	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	1-0	5	8	W

UD Alagoana (W)

LLDWWLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Doce Mel EC (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
01/06	Sociedade Acao (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	0-2	0	5	L
28/05	Ferroviaria (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-5	0-8	0	3	L
24/05	Paysandu (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	1-2	1	3	L
20/05	Itabirito (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-2	0-3	1	1	L
16/05	Itacoatiara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
13/05	Ypiranga AP (W) Copa do Brazil Women	2-1	4-1	4	6	W
10/05	Perolas Negras (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	1-1	6	10	D
03/05	Ceara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	1-3	0	1	L
25/04	Minas Brasilia DF (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-4	1-5	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in 3B Sport AM (W) vs UD Alagoana (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a 3B Sport AM (W) win (75%). Probabilities: 3B Sport AM (W) 75%, draw 17%, UD Alagoana (W) 8%.

How many goals are expected in 3B Sport AM (W) vs UD Alagoana (W)?

The model expects 3.42 goals (3B Sport AM (W) 2.61 · UD Alagoana (W) 0.81), with a 57% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in 3B Sport AM (W) vs UD Alagoana (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.