Football · Brazil Serie A2 Women · 02/08, 20:00

Prediction: Doce Mel EC (W) vs Taubate (W)

Team pages: Doce Mel EC (W) · Taubate (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Doce Mel EC (W)1.12

Taubate (W)1.41

1X2

29% 29% 43%

Doce Mel EC (W) Draw Taubate (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Doce Mel EC (W) 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDLWWWLLDL

Taubate (W) 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LDLDLWLLDL

Head-to-head

Doce Mel EC (W) 0–1 Taubate (W) (1 last)

Taubate (W)4-0Doce Mel EC (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Doce Mel EC (W) 1489 · Taubate (W) 1440

	Doce Mel EC (W)	Draw	Taubate (W)
Our model	29%	29%	42%
Market	29%	28%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Doce Mel EC (W) (rating 1489 vs 1440).
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Doce Mel EC (W)	Taubate (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.9	0.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 1.7	1.1 / 2.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.20

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
19:09 +4’	3.10	3.20	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Doce Mel EC (W) 0–0–1 Taubate (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/04/24 Brazil Campeonato Brasileiro A2 Women	Taubate (W)	4-0 HT 3-0	Doce Mel EC (W)

Standings · Brazil Serie A2 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vasco da Gama (W)	13	12	1	0	46	8	37
2	Itabirito (W)	13	11	1	1	25	6	34
3	Minas Brasilia DF (W)	13	10	2	1	32	6	32
4	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W)	13	9	0	4	30	12	27
5	Sociedade Acao (W)	13	6	3	4	15	13	21
6	3B Sport AM (W)	13	5	5	3	16	10	20
7	Sport Recife (W)	13	5	3	5	13	14	18
8	Perolas Negras (W)	13	4	5	4	16	18	17
9	Taubate (W)	13	4	3	6	19	17	15
10	Rio Negro RR (W)	13	4	2	7	12	24	14
11	Ceara (W)	13	4	1	8	12	22	13
12	Paysandu (W)	13	4	1	8	11	25	13
13	Doce Mel EC (W)	13	3	4	6	10	20	13
14	Vila Nova GO (W)	13	3	1	9	12	30	10
15	UD Alagoana (W)	13	2	1	10	9	29	7
16	Itacoatiara (W)	13	1	1	11	9	33	4

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Doce Mel EC (W)	Taubate (W)
3B Sport AM (W)	0-0 D	0-1 L
Vila Nova GO (W)	1-1 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Doce Mel EC (W) (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Doce Mel EC (W)

DDLWWWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	UD Alagoana (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	1-2	1	6	L
31/05	3B Sport AM (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
28/05	Cruzeiro (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-1	0-5	0	1	L
23/05	Vasco da Gama (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-3	0-5	3	1	L
20/05	Paysandu (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	3-1	3-1	–	–	W
16/05	Perolas Negras (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	2-1	0	1	W
13/05	Penarol AM (W) Copa do Brazil Women	2-1	2-1	2	8	W
10/05	Itabirito (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-3	0-3	0	0	L
02/05	Vila Nova GO (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
26/04	Ceara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-0	2	3	D

Taubate (W)

LDLDLWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Paulista Women	2-2	2-4	1	1	L
25/07	Sport Recife (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
18/07	Santos (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-1	0-1	1	6	L
12/07	Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-0	1-2	1	2	L
07/06	Mirassol (W) Brazil Paulista Women	2-0	2-0	2	2	W
30/05	Vila Nova GO (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-2	2-3	3	2	L
23/05	Minas Brasilia DF (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
20/05	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
17/05	Sociedade Acao (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-1	1-1	1	2	D
13/05	3B Sport AM (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-1	0-1	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Doce Mel EC (W) vs Taubate (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Taubate (W) win (43%). Probabilities: Doce Mel EC (W) 29%, draw 29%, Taubate (W) 43%.

How many goals are expected in Doce Mel EC (W) vs Taubate (W)?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Doce Mel EC (W) 1.12 · Taubate (W) 1.41), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Doce Mel EC (W) vs Taubate (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.