Football · Brazil Serie A2 Women · 25/07, 20:00

Prediction: Minas Brasilia DF (W) vs Ceara (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Minas Brasilia DF (W)2.3

Ceara (W)0.69

1X2

73% 18% 9%

Minas Brasilia DF (W) Draw Ceara (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Minas Brasilia DF (W) 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Ceara (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Minas Brasilia DF (W) 1567 · Ceara (W) 1470

	Minas Brasilia DF (W)	Draw	Ceara (W)
Our model	73%	18%	9%
Market	73%	18%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Minas Brasilia DF (W) (rating 1567 vs 1470).
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Minas Brasilia DF (W)	Ceara (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.6	1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.1	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	11/56/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.3	1.6 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.22

X5.00

210.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.95

2 (+1.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 21:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.18 → 1.18	Bet365 1.18
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	12.00 → 12.00	Bet365 12.00

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:28 +3’	1.18	5.50	12.00
20:34 +6’	1.22▲	5.00▼	10.00▼
21:39 +4’	1.18▼	5.50▲	12.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Brazil Serie A2 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vasco da Gama (W)	12	11	1	0	43	8	34
2	Itabirito (W)	12	10	1	1	23	6	31
3	Minas Brasilia DF (W)	12	9	2	1	28	6	29
4	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W)	12	9	0	3	29	10	27
5	Sociedade Acao (W)	12	6	2	4	15	13	20
6	Sport Recife (W)	12	5	2	5	13	14	17
7	3B Sport AM (W)	12	4	5	3	12	10	17
8	Perolas Negras (W)	12	4	4	4	16	18	16
9	Taubate (W)	12	4	2	6	19	17	14
10	Rio Negro RR (W)	12	4	2	6	12	22	14
11	Ceara (W)	12	4	1	7	12	18	13
12	Doce Mel EC (W)	12	3	4	5	9	18	13
13	Vila Nova GO (W)	12	3	1	8	12	27	10
14	Paysandu (W)	12	3	1	8	9	24	10
15	Itacoatiara (W)	12	1	1	10	9	29	4
16	UD Alagoana (W)	12	1	1	10	7	28	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Minas Brasilia DF (W)	Ceara (W)
Rio Negro RR (W)	3-0 W	1-2 L
Perolas Negras (W)	2-1 W	1-3 L
Itacoatiara (W)	2-1 W	2-1 W
Itabirito (W)	1-1 D	0-2 L
UD Alagoana (W)	5-1 W	3-1 W
Sociedade Acao (W)	2-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Minas Brasilia DF (W) (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Minas Brasilia DF (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/05	Rio Negro RR (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	3-0	4	3	W
28/05	Fluminense RJ (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-1	0-2	3	8	L
23/05	Taubate (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
19/05	Perolas Negras (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	2-1	3	2	W
16/05	Paysandu (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	5-0	3	2	W
14/05	Vila Nova GO (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	1-0	0	5	W
09/05	Itacoatiara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
03/05	Itabirito (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
25/04	UD Alagoana (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	4-0	5-1	5	4	W
19/04	Sociedade Acao (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	2-0	3	7	W

Ceara (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	3B Sport AM (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-1	2-1	2	2	W
31/05	Vasco da Gama (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
23/05	Itacoatiara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	–	2-1	–	–	W
20/05	Rio Negro RR (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	1-2	1	5	L
13/05	Itabirito (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
09/05	Sociedade Acao (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
03/05	UD Alagoana (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	3-1	8	1	W
26/04	Doce Mel EC (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-0	0	3	D
18/04	Perolas Negras (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	1-3	6	9	L
04/04	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-1	0	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Minas Brasilia DF (W) vs Ceara (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Minas Brasilia DF (W) win (73%). Probabilities: Minas Brasilia DF (W) 73%, draw 18%, Ceara (W) 9%.

How many goals are expected in Minas Brasilia DF (W) vs Ceara (W)?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Minas Brasilia DF (W) 2.3 · Ceara (W) 0.69), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Minas Brasilia DF (W) vs Ceara (W)?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.