Football · Brazil Serie A2 Women · 25/07, 21:00

Prediction: Sociedade Acao (W) vs Perolas Negras (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

Sociedade Acao (W)1.5

Perolas Negras (W)1

1X2

48% 27% 25%

Sociedade Acao (W) Draw Perolas Negras (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sociedade Acao (W) 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Perolas Negras (W) 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sociedade Acao (W) 1544 · Perolas Negras (W) 1503

	Sociedade Acao (W)	Draw	Perolas Negras (W)
Our model	48%	28%	24%
Market	49%	26%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sociedade Acao (W) (rating 1544 vs 1503).
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sociedade Acao (W)	Perolas Negras (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.8	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.9	3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	4.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.40

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:30 +2’	1.85	3.40	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Brazil Serie A2 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vasco da Gama (W)	12	11	1	0	43	8	34
2	Itabirito (W)	12	10	1	1	23	6	31
3	Minas Brasilia DF (W)	12	9	2	1	28	6	29
4	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W)	12	9	0	3	29	10	27
5	Sociedade Acao (W)	12	6	2	4	15	13	20
6	Sport Recife (W)	12	5	2	5	13	14	17
7	3B Sport AM (W)	12	4	5	3	12	10	17
8	Perolas Negras (W)	12	4	4	4	16	18	16
9	Taubate (W)	12	4	2	6	19	17	14
10	Rio Negro RR (W)	12	4	2	6	12	22	14
11	Ceara (W)	12	4	1	7	12	18	13
12	Doce Mel EC (W)	12	3	4	5	9	18	13
13	Vila Nova GO (W)	12	3	1	8	12	27	10
14	Paysandu (W)	12	3	1	8	9	24	10
15	Itacoatiara (W)	12	1	1	10	9	29	4
16	UD Alagoana (W)	12	1	1	10	7	28	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sociedade Acao (W)	Perolas Negras (W)
UD Alagoana (W)	2-0 W	1-1 D
Sport Recife (W)	1-0 W	1-1 D
Taubate (W)	1-1 D	2-1 W
Ceara (W)	3-1 W	3-1 W
Rio Negro RR (W)	2-1 W	1-1 D
Itacoatiara (W)	1-0 W	2-2 D
Minas Brasilia DF (W)	0-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sociedade Acao (W) (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sociedade Acao (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/06	UD Alagoana (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
27/05	3B Sport AM (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
24/05	Itabirito (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
21/05	Sport Recife (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
17/05	Taubate (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
14/05	Mixto EC (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
09/05	Ceara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
02/05	Rio Negro RR (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
25/04	Itacoatiara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
19/04	Minas Brasilia DF (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	0-2	6	7	L

Perolas Negras (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/05	Itacoatiara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	2-2	11	2	D
23/05	Rio Negro RR (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	1-1	1	1	D
19/05	Minas Brasilia DF (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	1-2	5	2	L
16/05	Doce Mel EC (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	1-2	2	1	L
10/05	UD Alagoana (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	1-1	7	10	D
07/05	Sao Joao PI (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
04/05	Sport Recife (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-1	1-1	1	8	D
25/04	Taubate (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	2-0	2-1	8	8	W
18/04	Ceara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	3-1	5	9	W
04/04	Paysandu (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	1-0	9	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sociedade Acao (W) vs Perolas Negras (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sociedade Acao (W) win (48%). Probabilities: Sociedade Acao (W) 48%, draw 27%, Perolas Negras (W) 25%.

How many goals are expected in Sociedade Acao (W) vs Perolas Negras (W)?

The model expects 2.5 goals (Sociedade Acao (W) 1.5 · Perolas Negras (W) 1), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sociedade Acao (W) vs Perolas Negras (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.