Football · Brazil Serie A2 Women · 25/07, 21:00

Prediction: Itacoatiara (W) vs 3B Sport AM (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

Itacoatiara (W)0.88

3B Sport AM (W)1.64

1X2

20% 25% 55%

Itacoatiara (W) Draw 3B Sport AM (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Itacoatiara (W) 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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3B Sport AM (W) 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Itacoatiara (W) 1–1–4 3B Sport AM (W) (6 last)

Itacoatiara (W)0-13B Sport AM (W)
3B Sport AM (W)2-1Itacoatiara (W)
Itacoatiara (W)0-23B Sport AM (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Itacoatiara (W) 1418 · 3B Sport AM (W) 1514

	Itacoatiara (W)	Draw	3B Sport AM (W)
Our model	19%	27%	54%
Market	21%	24%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours 3B Sport AM (W) (rating 1418 vs 1514).
H2H favours 3B Sport AM (W): 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Itacoatiara (W)	3B Sport AM (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.3	1.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1.3	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/11/89%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 2.7	1.6 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.5	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.33

X3.80

21.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
20:40 +2’	4.33	3.80	1.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Itacoatiara (W) 1–1–4 3B Sport AM (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/06/24 Brazil Serie A2 Women	Itacoatiara (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	3B Sport AM (W)
26/07/23 Brazil Campeonato Amazonense Women	3B Sport AM (W)	2-1 HT 2-1	Itacoatiara (W)
19/07/23 Brazil Campeonato Amazonense Women	Itacoatiara (W)	0-2 HT 0-0	3B Sport AM (W)
05/07/23 Brazil Campeonato Amazonense Women	3B Sport AM (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Itacoatiara (W)
14/05/23 Brazil Serie A2 Women	Itacoatiara (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	3B Sport AM (W)
18/12/21 Brazil Matches	3B Sport AM (W)	3-0 HT 1-0	Itacoatiara (W)

Standings · Brazil Serie A2 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vasco da Gama (W)	12	11	1	0	43	8	34
2	Itabirito (W)	12	10	1	1	23	6	31
3	Minas Brasilia DF (W)	12	9	2	1	28	6	29
4	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W)	12	9	0	3	29	10	27
5	Sociedade Acao (W)	12	6	2	4	15	13	20
6	Sport Recife (W)	12	5	2	5	13	14	17
7	3B Sport AM (W)	12	4	5	3	12	10	17
8	Perolas Negras (W)	12	4	4	4	16	18	16
9	Taubate (W)	12	4	2	6	19	17	14
10	Rio Negro RR (W)	12	4	2	6	12	22	14
11	Ceara (W)	12	4	1	7	12	18	13
12	Doce Mel EC (W)	12	3	4	5	9	18	13
13	Vila Nova GO (W)	12	3	1	8	12	27	10
14	Paysandu (W)	12	3	1	8	9	24	10
15	Itacoatiara (W)	12	1	1	10	9	29	4
16	UD Alagoana (W)	12	1	1	10	7	28	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Itacoatiara (W)	3B Sport AM (W)
Ceara (W)	1-2 L	1-2 L
Vila Nova GO (W)	2-1 W	3-0 W
Vasco da Gama (W)	0-8 L	3-3 D
Sociedade Acao (W)	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: 3B Sport AM (W) (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Itacoatiara (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/05	Perolas Negras (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	2-2	1	2	D
27/05	Mauaense (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
23/05	Ceara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	–	1-2	–	–	L
20/05	Vila Nova GO (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
16/05	UD Alagoana (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
13/05	Mauaense (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-1	0-1	1	8	L
09/05	Minas Brasilia DF (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
02/05	Vasco da Gama (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-4	0-8	2	4	L
25/04	Sociedade Acao (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
18/04	Rio Negro RR (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	0-1	5	6	L

3B Sport AM (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/07	Flamengo (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-1	0-1	1	0	L
12/07	Ceara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-1	1-2	2	2	L
31/05	Doce Mel EC (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
27/05	Sociedade Acao (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	2-0	0	5	W
23/05	Vila Nova GO (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	3-0	3-0	3	6	W
20/05	Vasco da Gama (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	2-0	3-3	7	4	D
13/05	Taubate (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
09/05	Sport Recife (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
02/05	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	1-0	5	8	W
26/04	Itabirito (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	0-2	0	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Itacoatiara (W) vs 3B Sport AM (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an 3B Sport AM (W) win (55%). Probabilities: Itacoatiara (W) 20%, draw 25%, 3B Sport AM (W) 55%.

How many goals are expected in Itacoatiara (W) vs 3B Sport AM (W)?

The model expects 2.52 goals (Itacoatiara (W) 0.88 · 3B Sport AM (W) 1.64), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Itacoatiara (W) vs 3B Sport AM (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.