Football · Brazil Serie A2 Women · 08/08, 20:00

Prediction: Sociedade Acao (W) vs Doce Mel EC (W)

Team pages: Sociedade Acao (W) · Doce Mel EC (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Sociedade Acao (W)1.98

Doce Mel EC (W)0.66

1X2

68% 21% 11%

Sociedade Acao (W) Draw Doce Mel EC (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Sociedade Acao (W) 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Doce Mel EC (W) 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sociedade Acao (W) 1532 · Doce Mel EC (W) 1463

	Sociedade Acao (W)	Draw	Doce Mel EC (W)
Our model	68%	22%	11%
Market	68%	20%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sociedade Acao (W) (rating 1532 vs 1463).
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sociedade Acao (W)	Doce Mel EC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.8	0.9 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4	1.7 / 2.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.50

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.80

2 (+1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 13:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.33▼	Bet365 1.33
X	4.33 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50
2	5.75 → 8.00▲	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 9.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:19 +4’	1.44	4.33	5.75
08:59 +1’	1.42▼	4.20▼	6.25▲
13:03 +2’	1.33▼	4.50▲	8.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Brazil Serie A2 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vasco da Gama (W)	14	12	2	0	48	10	38
2	Itabirito (W)	14	12	1	1	34	6	37
3	Minas Brasilia DF (W)	14	10	3	1	34	8	33
4	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W)	14	10	0	4	31	12	30
5	3B Sport AM (W)	14	6	5	3	20	10	23
6	Sociedade Acao (W)	14	6	4	4	17	15	22
7	Sport Recife (W)	14	6	3	5	15	14	21
8	Taubate (W)	14	5	3	6	23	17	18
9	Perolas Negras (W)	14	4	5	5	16	19	17
10	Paysandu (W)	14	4	2	8	13	27	14
11	Rio Negro RR (W)	14	4	2	8	12	26	14
12	Ceara (W)	14	4	1	9	12	23	13
13	Vila Nova GO (W)	14	4	1	9	13	30	13
14	Doce Mel EC (W)	14	3	4	7	10	24	13
15	UD Alagoana (W)	14	2	1	11	9	33	7
16	Itacoatiara (W)	14	1	1	12	9	42	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sociedade Acao (W)	Doce Mel EC (W)
Paysandu (W)	2-2 D	3-1 W
Perolas Negras (W)	0-0 D	2-1 W
UD Alagoana (W)	2-0 W	1-2 L
3B Sport AM (W)	0-2 L	0-0 D
Itabirito (W)	0-1 L	0-3 L
Taubate (W)	1-1 D	0-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sociedade Acao (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Paysandu (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	2-2	2	4	D
25/07	Perolas Negras (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-0	9	7	D
01/06	UD Alagoana (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
27/05	3B Sport AM (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
24/05	Itabirito (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
21/05	Sport Recife (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
17/05	Taubate (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
14/05	Mixto EC (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
09/05	Ceara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
02/05	Rio Negro RR (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-1	2-1	–	–	W

Doce Mel EC (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Taubate (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	0-4	8	2	L
25/07	UD Alagoana (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	1-2	1	6	L
31/05	3B Sport AM (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
28/05	Cruzeiro (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-1	0-5	0	1	L
23/05	Vasco da Gama (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-3	0-5	3	1	L
20/05	Paysandu (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	3-1	3-1	–	–	W
16/05	Perolas Negras (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	2-1	0	1	W
13/05	Penarol AM (W) Copa do Brazil Women	2-1	2-1	2	8	W
10/05	Itabirito (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-3	0-3	0	0	L
02/05	Vila Nova GO (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-1	1-1	2	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sociedade Acao (W) vs Doce Mel EC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sociedade Acao (W) win (68%). Probabilities: Sociedade Acao (W) 68%, draw 21%, Doce Mel EC (W) 11%.

How many goals are expected in Sociedade Acao (W) vs Doce Mel EC (W)?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Sociedade Acao (W) 1.98 · Doce Mel EC (W) 0.66), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sociedade Acao (W) vs Doce Mel EC (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.