Football · Brazil Serie A2 Women · 08/08, 20:00

Prediction: Minas Brasilia DF (W) vs Vila Nova GO (W)

Team pages: Minas Brasilia DF (W) · Vila Nova GO (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

Minas Brasilia DF (W)2.64

Vila Nova GO (W)0.64

1X2

84% 11% 4%

Minas Brasilia DF (W) Draw Vila Nova GO (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Minas Brasilia DF (W) 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWDLWWD

Vila Nova GO (W) 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLLWLW

Head-to-head

Minas Brasilia DF (W) 1–0 Vila Nova GO (W) (1 last)

Minas Brasilia DF (W)1-0Vila Nova GO (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Minas Brasilia DF (W) 1562 · Vila Nova GO (W) 1444

	Minas Brasilia DF (W)	Draw	Vila Nova GO (W)
Our model	79%	15%	6%
Market	89%	9%	3%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Minas Brasilia DF (W) (rating 1562 vs 1444).
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Minas Brasilia DF (W)	Vila Nova GO (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.7	0.7 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.5 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.3	1.7 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.06

X11.00

234.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.75)1.85

2 (+2.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 09:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.08 → 1.06▼	Bet365 1.06
X	9.50 → 11.00▲	Bet365 11.00
2	21.00 → 34.00▲	Bet365 34.00

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:38 +46’	1.08	9.50	21.00
06:16 +1’	1.06▼	10.00▲	29.00▲
08:59 +2’	1.06	11.00▲	34.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Minas Brasilia DF (W) 1–0–0 Vila Nova GO (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 Copa do Brazil Women	Minas Brasilia DF (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Vila Nova GO (W)

Standings · Brazil Serie A2 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vasco da Gama (W)	14	12	2	0	48	10	38
2	Itabirito (W)	14	12	1	1	34	6	37
3	Minas Brasilia DF (W)	14	10	3	1	34	8	33
4	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W)	14	10	0	4	31	12	30
5	3B Sport AM (W)	14	6	5	3	20	10	23
6	Sociedade Acao (W)	14	6	4	4	17	15	22
7	Sport Recife (W)	14	6	3	5	15	14	21
8	Taubate (W)	14	5	3	6	23	17	18
9	Perolas Negras (W)	14	4	5	5	16	19	17
10	Paysandu (W)	14	4	2	8	13	27	14
11	Rio Negro RR (W)	14	4	2	8	12	26	14
12	Ceara (W)	14	4	1	9	12	23	13
13	Vila Nova GO (W)	14	4	1	9	13	30	13
14	Doce Mel EC (W)	14	3	4	7	10	24	13
15	UD Alagoana (W)	14	2	1	11	9	33	7
16	Itacoatiara (W)	14	1	1	12	9	42	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Minas Brasilia DF (W)	Vila Nova GO (W)
Vasco da Gama (W)	2-2 D	0-3 L
Ceara (W)	4-0 W	1-0 W
Taubate (W)	0-0 D	3-2 W
Paysandu (W)	5-0 W	1-3 L
Itacoatiara (W)	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Minas Brasilia DF (W) (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Minas Brasilia DF (W)

DWWWWDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Vasco da Gama (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-2	2-2	9	5	D
25/07	Ceara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	4-0	8	1	W
31/05	Rio Negro RR (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	3-0	4	3	W
28/05	Fluminense RJ (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-1	0-2	3	8	L
23/05	Taubate (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
19/05	Perolas Negras (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	2-1	3	2	W
16/05	Paysandu (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	5-0	3	2	W
14/05	Vila Nova GO (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	1-0	0	5	W
09/05	Itacoatiara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
03/05	Itabirito (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	1-1	3	6	D

Vila Nova GO (W)

LDLLLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Ceara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
25/07	Vasco da Gama (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-2	0-3	1	1	L
30/05	Taubate (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	2-1	3-2	2	2	W
23/05	3B Sport AM (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-3	0-3	2	6	L
20/05	Itacoatiara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
16/05	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
14/05	Minas Brasilia DF (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-1	0-1	1	5	L
09/05	Paysandu (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
02/05	Doce Mel EC (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
26/04	Sport Recife (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-3	0-3	7	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Minas Brasilia DF (W) vs Vila Nova GO (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Minas Brasilia DF (W) win (84%). Probabilities: Minas Brasilia DF (W) 84%, draw 11%, Vila Nova GO (W) 4%.

How many goals are expected in Minas Brasilia DF (W) vs Vila Nova GO (W)?

The model expects 3.28 goals (Minas Brasilia DF (W) 2.64 · Vila Nova GO (W) 0.64), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Minas Brasilia DF (W) vs Vila Nova GO (W)?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.