Football · Brazil Serie A2 Women · 08/08, 20:00

Prediction: Ceara (W) vs Sport Recife (W)

Team pages: Ceara (W) · Sport Recife (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.17Total

Ceara (W)0.85

Sport Recife (W)1.32

1X2

24% 29% 47%

Ceara (W) Draw Sport Recife (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Ceara (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DWLLLWLWLL

Sport Recife (W) 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDWLLLLWDW

Head-to-head

Ceara (W) 1–1–0 Sport Recife (W) (2 last)

Ceara (W)2-2Sport Recife (W)
Sport Recife (W)0-5Ceara (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ceara (W) 1468 · Sport Recife (W) 1503

	Ceara (W)	Draw	Sport Recife (W)
Our model	23%	31%	46%
Market	25%	27%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 2.17 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ceara (W)	Sport Recife (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.7	0.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/44/44%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 2.8	2.6 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.30

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.88

2 (-0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:19 +5’	3.60	3.30	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ceara (W) 1–1–0 Sport Recife (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/11/20 Brazil Serie A2 Women	Ceara (W)	2-2 HT 1-1	Sport Recife (W)
22/11/20 Brazil Campeonato Brasileiro A2 Women	Sport Recife (W)	0-5 HT 0-2	Ceara (W)

Standings · Brazil Serie A2 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vasco da Gama (W)	14	12	2	0	48	10	38
2	Itabirito (W)	14	12	1	1	34	6	37
3	Minas Brasilia DF (W)	14	10	3	1	34	8	33
4	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W)	14	10	0	4	31	12	30
5	3B Sport AM (W)	14	6	5	3	20	10	23
6	Sociedade Acao (W)	14	6	4	4	17	15	22
7	Sport Recife (W)	14	6	3	5	15	14	21
8	Taubate (W)	14	5	3	6	23	17	18
9	Perolas Negras (W)	14	4	5	5	16	19	17
10	Paysandu (W)	14	4	2	8	13	27	14
11	Rio Negro RR (W)	14	4	2	8	12	26	14
12	Ceara (W)	14	4	1	9	12	23	13
13	Vila Nova GO (W)	14	4	1	9	13	30	13
14	Doce Mel EC (W)	14	3	4	7	10	24	13
15	UD Alagoana (W)	14	2	1	11	9	33	7
16	Itacoatiara (W)	14	1	1	12	9	42	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ceara (W)	Sport Recife (W)
3B Sport AM (W)	2-1 W	1-1 D
Rio Negro RR (W)	1-2 L	2-0 W
Itabirito (W)	0-2 L	1-2 L
Sociedade Acao (W)	1-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sport Recife (W) (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Ceara (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Vila Nova GO (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
25/07	Minas Brasilia DF (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	0-4	2	1	L
12/07	3B Sport AM (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-1	2-1	2	2	W
31/05	Vasco da Gama (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
23/05	Itacoatiara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	–	2-1	–	–	W
20/05	Rio Negro RR (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	1-2	1	5	L
13/05	Itabirito (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
09/05	Sociedade Acao (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
03/05	UD Alagoana (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	3-1	8	1	W
26/04	Doce Mel EC (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-0	0	3	D

Sport Recife (W)

DDWLLLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Rio Negro RR (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	2-0	2-0	6	4	W
25/07	Taubate (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
01/06	Paysandu (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	1-0	8	0	W
28/05	Itabirito (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
24/05	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
21/05	Sociedade Acao (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
16/05	Itabirito (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
14/05	Criciuma (W) Copa do Brazil Women	2-0	3-0	3	5	W
09/05	3B Sport AM (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
04/05	Perolas Negras (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-1	1-1	8	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ceara (W) vs Sport Recife (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sport Recife (W) win (47%). Probabilities: Ceara (W) 24%, draw 29%, Sport Recife (W) 47%.

How many goals are expected in Ceara (W) vs Sport Recife (W)?

The model expects 2.17 goals (Ceara (W) 0.85 · Sport Recife (W) 1.32), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ceara (W) vs Sport Recife (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.