Football · Brazil Serie A2 Women · 08/08, 20:00

Prediction: Rio Negro RR (W) vs Paysandu (W)

Team pages: Rio Negro RR (W) · Paysandu (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.33Total

Rio Negro RR (W)1.74

Paysandu (W)1.59

1X2

40% 26% 34%

Rio Negro RR (W) Draw Paysandu (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Rio Negro RR (W) 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWDLLL

Paysandu (W) 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLLWWLWD

Head-to-head

Rio Negro RR (W) 1–0 Paysandu (W) (1 last)

Paysandu (W)1-3Rio Negro RR (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rio Negro RR (W) 1443 · Paysandu (W) 1497

	Rio Negro RR (W)	Draw	Paysandu (W)
Our model	41%	25%	34%
Market	40%	27%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paysandu (W) (rating 1443 vs 1497).
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rio Negro RR (W)	Paysandu (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.6	1.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.2	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3	1.7 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.30

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:19 +5’	2.25	3.30	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rio Negro RR (W) 1–0–0 Paysandu (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/25 Brazil Serie A2 Women	Paysandu (W)	1-3 HT 1-2	Rio Negro RR (W)

Standings · Brazil Serie A2 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vasco da Gama (W)	14	12	2	0	48	10	38
2	Itabirito (W)	14	12	1	1	34	6	37
3	Minas Brasilia DF (W)	14	10	3	1	34	8	33
4	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W)	14	10	0	4	31	12	30
5	3B Sport AM (W)	14	6	5	3	20	10	23
6	Sociedade Acao (W)	14	6	4	4	17	15	22
7	Sport Recife (W)	14	6	3	5	15	14	21
8	Taubate (W)	14	5	3	6	23	17	18
9	Perolas Negras (W)	14	4	5	5	16	19	17
10	Paysandu (W)	14	4	2	8	13	27	14
11	Rio Negro RR (W)	14	4	2	8	12	26	14
12	Ceara (W)	14	4	1	9	12	23	13
13	Vila Nova GO (W)	14	4	1	9	13	30	13
14	Doce Mel EC (W)	14	3	4	7	10	24	13
15	UD Alagoana (W)	14	2	1	11	9	33	7
16	Itacoatiara (W)	14	1	1	12	9	42	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rio Negro RR (W)	Paysandu (W)
Sport Recife (W)	0-2 L	0-1 L
Minas Brasilia DF (W)	0-3 L	0-5 L
Taubate (W)	2-0 W	2-3 L
Sociedade Acao (W)	1-2 L	2-2 D
Clube Atletico Piauiense (W)	1-8 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Paysandu (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Rio Negro RR (W)

LLWLLWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Sport Recife (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-2	0-2	1	4	L
25/07	Itabirito (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-2	5	6	L
31/05	Minas Brasilia DF (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	0-3	1	3	L
23/05	Perolas Negras (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	1-1	5	1	D
20/05	Ceara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
16/05	Vasco da Gama (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-3	2-4	2	4	L
13/05	Coritiba (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-1	1-3	0	7	L
09/05	Taubate (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
02/05	Sociedade Acao (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
27/04	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-3	1-8	2	2	L

Paysandu (W)

LWDLLWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Sociedade Acao (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
25/07	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
01/06	Sport Recife (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
27/05	Remo (W) Brazil Copa Paraense Women	1-0	3-1	8	4	W
24/05	UD Alagoana (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
20/05	Doce Mel EC (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-3	1-3	–	–	L
16/05	Minas Brasilia DF (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-5	1	2	L
14/05	Planalto EC (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
09/05	Vila Nova GO (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
02/05	Taubate (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-2	2-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rio Negro RR (W) vs Paysandu (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rio Negro RR (W) win (40%). Probabilities: Rio Negro RR (W) 40%, draw 26%, Paysandu (W) 34%.

How many goals are expected in Rio Negro RR (W) vs Paysandu (W)?

The model expects 3.33 goals (Rio Negro RR (W) 1.74 · Paysandu (W) 1.59), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Rio Negro RR (W) vs Paysandu (W)?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.