Football · Brazil Serie A2 Women · 08/08, 20:00

Prediction: Taubate (W) vs Itabirito (W)

Team pages: Taubate (W) · Itabirito (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.56Total

Taubate (W)1.01

Itabirito (W)1.55

1X2

24% 27% 49%

Taubate (W) Draw Itabirito (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Taubate (W) 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Itabirito (W) 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Taubate (W) 1462 · Itabirito (W) 1605

	Taubate (W)	Draw	Itabirito (W)
Our model	23%	28%	49%
Market	24%	26%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Itabirito (W) (rating 1462 vs 1605).
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Taubate (W)	Itabirito (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	2.5 / 0.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	1.1 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 2.3	3.2 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.70

X3.40

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.70▲	Bet365 3.70
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.83 → 1.80▼	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
16:59 +25’	3.60	3.40	1.83
08:59 +1’	3.70▲	3.40	1.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Brazil Serie A2 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vasco da Gama (W)	14	12	2	0	48	10	38
2	Itabirito (W)	14	12	1	1	34	6	37
3	Minas Brasilia DF (W)	14	10	3	1	34	8	33
4	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W)	14	10	0	4	31	12	30
5	3B Sport AM (W)	14	6	5	3	20	10	23
6	Sociedade Acao (W)	14	6	4	4	17	15	22
7	Sport Recife (W)	14	6	3	5	15	14	21
8	Taubate (W)	14	5	3	6	23	17	18
9	Perolas Negras (W)	14	4	5	5	16	19	17
10	Paysandu (W)	14	4	2	8	13	27	14
11	Rio Negro RR (W)	14	4	2	8	12	26	14
12	Ceara (W)	14	4	1	9	12	23	13
13	Vila Nova GO (W)	14	4	1	9	13	30	13
14	Doce Mel EC (W)	14	3	4	7	10	24	13
15	UD Alagoana (W)	14	2	1	11	9	33	7
16	Itacoatiara (W)	14	1	1	12	9	42	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Taubate (W)	Itabirito (W)
Doce Mel EC (W)	4-0 W	3-0 W
Sport Recife (W)	0-0 D	2-1 W
Clube Atletico Piauiense (W)	1-2 L	2-1 W
Sociedade Acao (W)	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Itabirito (W) (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Taubate (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Doce Mel EC (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	4-0	5	2	W
30/07	Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Paulista Women	2-2	2-4	1	1	L
25/07	Sport Recife (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
18/07	Santos (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-1	0-1	1	6	L
12/07	Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-0	1-2	1	2	L
07/06	Mirassol (W) Brazil Paulista Women	2-0	2-0	2	2	W
30/05	Vila Nova GO (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-2	2-3	3	2	L
23/05	Minas Brasilia DF (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
20/05	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
17/05	Sociedade Acao (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-1	1-1	1	2	D

Itabirito (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Itacoatiara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	5-0	9-0	7	2	W
25/07	Rio Negro RR (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	2-0	11	6	W
22/07	Bahia (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
31/05	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
28/05	Sport Recife (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	2-1	6	3	W
24/05	Sociedade Acao (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
20/05	UD Alagoana (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	2-0	3-0	6	1	W
16/05	Sport Recife (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
13/05	Ceara (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	2-0	9	2	W
10/05	Doce Mel EC (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	3-0	3-0	3	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Taubate (W) vs Itabirito (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Itabirito (W) win (49%). Probabilities: Taubate (W) 24%, draw 27%, Itabirito (W) 49%.

How many goals are expected in Taubate (W) vs Itabirito (W)?

The model expects 2.56 goals (Taubate (W) 1.01 · Itabirito (W) 1.55), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Taubate (W) vs Itabirito (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.