Football · Brazil Serie A2 Women · 08/08, 20:00

Prediction: Perolas Negras (W) vs 3B Sport AM (W)

Team pages: Perolas Negras (W) · 3B Sport AM (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

Perolas Negras (W)1.19

3B Sport AM (W)1.3

1X2

33% 28% 39%

Perolas Negras (W) Draw 3B Sport AM (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Perolas Negras (W) 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

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3B Sport AM (W) 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Perolas Negras (W) 1475 · 3B Sport AM (W) 1560

	Perolas Negras (W)	Draw	3B Sport AM (W)
Our model	32%	30%	38%
Market	34%	26%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours 3B Sport AM (W) (rating 1475 vs 1560).
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Perolas Negras (W)	3B Sport AM (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	3.5 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	1.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.6	1.9 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.40

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
16:38 +46’	2.63	3.40	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Brazil Serie A2 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vasco da Gama (W)	14	12	2	0	48	10	38
2	Itabirito (W)	14	12	1	1	34	6	37
3	Minas Brasilia DF (W)	14	10	3	1	34	8	33
4	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W)	14	10	0	4	31	12	30
5	3B Sport AM (W)	14	6	5	3	20	10	23
6	Sociedade Acao (W)	14	6	4	4	17	15	22
7	Sport Recife (W)	14	6	3	5	15	14	21
8	Taubate (W)	14	5	3	6	23	17	18
9	Perolas Negras (W)	14	4	5	5	16	19	17
10	Paysandu (W)	14	4	2	8	13	27	14
11	Rio Negro RR (W)	14	4	2	8	12	26	14
12	Ceara (W)	14	4	1	9	12	23	13
13	Vila Nova GO (W)	14	4	1	9	13	30	13
14	Doce Mel EC (W)	14	3	4	7	10	24	13
15	UD Alagoana (W)	14	2	1	11	9	33	7
16	Itacoatiara (W)	14	1	1	12	9	42	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Perolas Negras (W)	3B Sport AM (W)
Sociedade Acao (W)	0-0 D	2-0 W
Itacoatiara (W)	2-2 D	4-0 W
Doce Mel EC (W)	1-2 L	0-0 D
UD Alagoana (W)	1-1 D	4-0 W
Taubate (W)	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: 3B Sport AM (W) (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Perolas Negras (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
25/07	Sociedade Acao (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
30/05	Itacoatiara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	2-2	11	2	D
23/05	Rio Negro RR (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	1-1	1	1	D
19/05	Minas Brasilia DF (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	1-2	5	2	L
16/05	Doce Mel EC (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	1-2	2	1	L
10/05	UD Alagoana (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	1-1	7	10	D
07/05	Sao Joao PI (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
04/05	Sport Recife (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-1	1-1	1	8	D
25/04	Taubate (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	2-0	2-1	8	8	W

3B Sport AM (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/08	Amazonas Legis Women Brazil Campeonato Amazonense Women	7-0	17-0	6	0	W
01/08	UD Alagoana (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	4-0	4	1	W
25/07	Itacoatiara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	3-0	4-0	7	3	W
21/07	Flamengo (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-1	0-1	1	0	L
12/07	Ceara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-1	1-2	2	2	L
31/05	Doce Mel EC (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
27/05	Sociedade Acao (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	2-0	0	5	W
23/05	Vila Nova GO (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	3-0	3-0	3	6	W
20/05	Vasco da Gama (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	2-0	3-3	7	4	D
13/05	Taubate (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	1-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Perolas Negras (W) vs 3B Sport AM (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an 3B Sport AM (W) win (39%). Probabilities: Perolas Negras (W) 33%, draw 28%, 3B Sport AM (W) 39%.

How many goals are expected in Perolas Negras (W) vs 3B Sport AM (W)?

The model expects 2.49 goals (Perolas Negras (W) 1.19 · 3B Sport AM (W) 1.3), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Perolas Negras (W) vs 3B Sport AM (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.