Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 11/10, 13:30

Prediction: FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide Linnameeskond

Team pages: FC Levadia Tallinn · Paide Linnameeskond

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.54Total

FC Levadia Tallinn2.41

Paide Linnameeskond1.12

1X2

65% 19% 16%

FC Levadia Tallinn Draw Paide Linnameeskond

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Levadia Tallinn 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWWWWD

Paide Linnameeskond 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLWLWW

Head-to-head

FC Levadia Tallinn 4–1–1 Paide Linnameeskond (6 last)

Paide Linnameeskond0-2FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn4-1Paide Linnameeskond
Paide Linnameeskond1-3FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn2-2Paide Linnameeskond
FC Levadia Tallinn1-2Paide Linnameeskond
Paide Linnameeskond0-3FC Levadia Tallinn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Levadia Tallinn 1620 · Paide Linnameeskond 1517

	FC Levadia Tallinn	Draw	Paide Linnameeskond
Our model	65%	20%	15%
Market	65%	19%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.54 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Levadia Tallinn (rating 1620 vs 1517).
H2H favours FC Levadia Tallinn: 4-1-1.
High corners: 14.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Levadia Tallinn	Paide Linnameeskond
Goals for / against (FT)	3.2 / 0.5	1.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.1 / 8.7	2.6 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.38

X4.75

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.80

2 (+1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.38 → 1.38	Bet365 1.38
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:47 +2’	1.38	4.75	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Levadia Tallinn 4–1–1 Paide Linnameeskond

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/09/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	0-2 HT 0-0	FC Levadia Tallinn
26/08/26 Estonia Cup	FC Levadia Tallinn	4-1 HT 1-1	Paide Linnameeskond
17/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	1-3 HT 1-3	FC Levadia Tallinn
22/03/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	2-2 HT 1-1	Paide Linnameeskond
22/10/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	1-2 HT 1-1	Paide Linnameeskond
04/07/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	0-3 HT 0-2	FC Levadia Tallinn

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	29	22	6	1	81	21	72
2	FC Flora Tallinn	29	18	1	10	59	39	55
3	Paide Linnameeskond	29	15	6	8	48	36	51
4	JK Nomme Kalju	29	15	5	9	52	27	50
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	29	14	2	13	37	47	44
6	Harju JK Laagri	29	11	2	16	40	47	35
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	29	10	4	15	39	57	34
8	FC Kuressaare	29	8	5	16	31	49	29
9	JK Nomme United	29	9	1	19	47	68	28
10	JK Trans Narva	29	5	4	20	22	65	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Levadia Tallinn	Paide Linnameeskond
JK Trans Narva	1-1 D	1-1 D
JK Tammeka Tartu	6-0 W	2-0 W
Parnu JK Vaprus	4-0 W	2-0 W
FC Kuressaare	4-0 W	1-0 W
Harju JK Laagri	2-1 W	1-2 L
JK Nomme United	5-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 0 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Levadia Tallinn (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Levadia Tallinn

DWWWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	11	4	D
17/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	3-0	6-0	9	4	W
12/09	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	3-0	4-0	8	4	W
09/09	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	4-0	3	2	W
06/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
30/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	3-2	10	6	W
21/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	4-0	5	2	W
16/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	7	1	W
09/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	3-0	5-0	11	1	W
02/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-1	17	5	D

Paide Linnameeskond

LWDWWLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	3-1	9	2	W
16/09	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
13/09	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	6	11	L
09/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	1	7	W
06/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
30/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	2-1	8	4	W
23/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	4-1	8	2	W
16/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
02/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
19/07	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-5	2-5	7	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide Linnameeskond?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Levadia Tallinn win (65%). Probabilities: FC Levadia Tallinn 65%, draw 19%, Paide Linnameeskond 16%.

How many goals are expected in FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide Linnameeskond?

The model expects 3.54 goals (FC Levadia Tallinn 2.41 · Paide Linnameeskond 1.12), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide Linnameeskond?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.