Football · Brazil Serie A · 03/11, 23:30

Prediction: Chapecoense vs Mirassol

Team pages: Chapecoense · Mirassol

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

Chapecoense1.2

Mirassol1.44

1X2

31% 27% 42%

Chapecoense Draw Mirassol

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Chapecoense 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWLWLDLLLW

Mirassol 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDLWDWDLWD

Head-to-head

Chapecoense 0–1–4 Mirassol (5 last)

Mirassol1-1Chapecoense
Mirassol1-0Chapecoense
Chapecoense0-1Mirassol
Chapecoense0-1Mirassol
Mirassol1-0Chapecoense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chapecoense 1464 · Mirassol 1520

	Chapecoense	Draw	Mirassol
Our model	30%	28%	41%
Market	31%	27%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mirassol (rating 1464 vs 1520).
H2H favours Mirassol: 4-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chapecoense	Mirassol
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2	1.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.2	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.4	2.4 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	4.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.50

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.02

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:20 +3’	3.00	3.50	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chapecoense 0–1–4 Mirassol

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Brazil Serie A	Mirassol	1-1 HT 0-0	Chapecoense
24/11/24 Brazil Serie B	Mirassol	1-0 HT 1-0	Chapecoense
05/08/24 Brazil Serie B	Chapecoense	0-1 HT 0-0	Mirassol
29/07/23 Brazil Serie B	Chapecoense	0-1 HT 0-0	Mirassol
15/04/23 Brazil Serie B	Mirassol	1-0 HT 0-0	Chapecoense

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	32	21	7	4	64	27	70
2	Palmeiras	32	20	9	3	56	22	69
3	Cruzeiro	32	16	6	10	51	46	54
4	Athletico Paranaense	32	15	9	8	50	38	54
5	Fluminense	32	14	9	9	50	41	51
6	Atletico Mineiro	32	14	8	10	44	38	50
7	EC Bahia	32	13	11	8	45	40	50
8	Santos	32	12	10	10	49	47	46
9	Sao Paulo	32	12	7	13	37	36	43
10	Bragantino	32	11	8	13	39	38	41
11	Botafogo	32	10	9	13	44	51	39
12	Coritiba	32	10	9	13	38	50	39
13	Vasco da Gama	31	10	8	13	39	45	38
14	Vitoria	32	10	8	14	35	46	38
15	Mirassol	32	9	10	13	37	45	37
16	Internacional	32	8	11	13	36	40	35
17	Gremio	32	8	10	14	35	44	34
18	Corinthians	32	8	9	15	34	42	33
19	Remo	32	5	11	16	34	50	26
20	Chapecoense	31	4	9	18	32	63	21

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chapecoense	Mirassol
Botafogo	0-1 L	2-0 W
Vitoria	0-4 L	2-2 D
Internacional	1-2 L	2-0 W
Sao Paulo	1-0 W	1-1 D
EC Bahia	3-3 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Mirassol (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chapecoense

DWLWLDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
17/10	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
13/10	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-3	1-4	6	3	L
08/10	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-4	6	5	L
19/09	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
12/09	Internacional Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	4	8	L
07/09	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
30/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-2	1-3	7	4	L
23/08	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
16/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-2	3-3	3	3	D

Mirassol

DDLWDWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	7	5	D
17/10	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-0	5	9	W
12/10	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
08/10	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
19/09	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-0	3	1	W
13/09	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-2	2-2	12	10	D
06/09	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	7	5	W
03/09	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	7	2	L
30/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
23/08	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	2	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chapecoense vs Mirassol?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Mirassol win (42%). Probabilities: Chapecoense 31%, draw 27%, Mirassol 42%.

How many goals are expected in Chapecoense vs Mirassol?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Chapecoense 1.2 · Mirassol 1.44), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Chapecoense vs Mirassol?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.