Football · Australia Tasmania Premier League · 08/08, 06:30

Prediction: Kingborough Lions vs Clarence Zebras FC

Team pages: Kingborough Lions · Clarence Zebras FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.85Total

Kingborough Lions2.68

Clarence Zebras FC1.17

1X2

69% 17% 14%

Kingborough Lions Draw Clarence Zebras FC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Kingborough Lions 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDWLWWLW

Clarence Zebras FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLDDDLWW

Head-to-head

Kingborough Lions 6–0 Clarence Zebras FC (6 last)

Clarence Zebras FC0-4Kingborough Lions
Kingborough Lions4-1Clarence Zebras FC
Clarence Zebras FC1-4Kingborough Lions
Clarence Zebras FC0-4Kingborough Lions
Kingborough Lions3-0Clarence Zebras FC
Kingborough Lions4-3Clarence Zebras FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kingborough Lions 1573 · Clarence Zebras FC 1498

	Kingborough Lions	Draw	Clarence Zebras FC
Our model	69%	18%	14%
Market	69%	16%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.85 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kingborough Lions (rating 1573 vs 1498).
H2H favours Kingborough Lions: 6-0-0.
High corners: 15 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kingborough Lions	Clarence Zebras FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 0.9	1.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.3	0.9 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.3	3.6 / 8.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.28

X5.50

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.90

2 (+1.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.85

Under 3.751.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
05:12 +3’	1.28	5.50	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kingborough Lions 6–0–0 Clarence Zebras FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Australia Tasmania Premier League	Clarence Zebras FC	0-4 HT 0-2	Kingborough Lions
06/09/25 Australia Tasmania Premier League	Kingborough Lions	4-1 HT 1-0	Clarence Zebras FC
19/07/25 Australia Tasmania Premier League	Clarence Zebras FC	1-4 HT 1-2	Kingborough Lions
10/05/25 Australia Tasmania Premier League	Clarence Zebras FC	0-4 HT 0-0	Kingborough Lions
09/08/24 Australia Tasmania Premier League	Kingborough Lions	3-0 HT 2-0	Clarence Zebras FC
15/06/24 Australia Tasmania Premier League	Kingborough Lions	4-3 HT 3-2	Clarence Zebras FC

Standings · Australia Tasmania Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	South Hobart	17	14	2	1	60	14	44
2	Kingborough Lions	17	13	1	3	48	15	40
3	Devonport City	17	13	1	3	51	19	40
4	Launceston City	17	10	1	6	40	30	31
5	Clarence Zebras FC	17	8	3	6	29	26	27
6	Riverside Olympic	17	7	3	7	29	28	24
7	South East United FC	17	6	0	11	22	48	18
8	Glenorchy Knights FC	17	4	2	11	21	32	14
9	Launceston United	17	1	2	14	16	59	5
10	Ulverstone	17	1	1	15	12	57	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kingborough Lions	Clarence Zebras FC
Launceston United	2-0 W	1-1 D
Launceston City	3-1 W	1-2 L
Glenorchy Knights FC	2-0 W	2-2 D
Ulverstone	1-2 L	1-0 W
Devonport City	2-1 W	2-2 D
South Hobart	1-1 D	1-3 L
South East United FC	9-0 W	2-1 W
Riverside Olympic	3-0 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Kingborough Lions (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Kingborough Lions

WWWDWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Launceston United Australia Tasmania Premier League	1-0	2-0	10	3	W
26/07	Melbourne Victory Australia Cup	0-2	0-4	4	3	L
18/07	Launceston City Australia Tasmania Premier League	2-1	3-1	4	1	W
10/07	Glenorchy Knights FC Australia Tasmania Premier League	1-0	2-0	11	4	W
04/07	Ulverstone Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-0	1-2	5	5	L
28/06	Devonport City Australia Tasmania Premier League	1-0	2-1	3	7	W
21/06	South Hobart Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
14/06	South East United FC Australia Tasmania Premier League	7-0	9-0	10	1	W
30/05	Riverside Olympic Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-0	3-0	8	6	W
23/05	Clarence Zebras FC Australia Tasmania Premier League	2-0	4-0	4	4	W

Clarence Zebras FC

WLWLDDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Ulverstone Australia Tasmania Premier League	1-0	1-0	10	0	W
18/07	Riverside Olympic Australia Tasmania Premier League	2-2	4-2	13	2	W
11/07	Launceston City Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-2	1-2	12	4	L
04/07	Glenorchy Knights FC Australia Tasmania Premier League	1-2	2-2	5	5	D
27/06	Launceston United Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-0	1-1	11	2	D
20/06	Devonport City Australia Tasmania Premier League	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
13/06	South Hobart Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-1	1-3	5	3	L
31/05	South East United FC Australia Tasmania Premier League	1-1	2-1	7	1	W
23/05	Kingborough Lions Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-2	0-4	6	4	L
10/05	Ulverstone Australia Tasmania Premier League	3-0	4-0	14	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kingborough Lions vs Clarence Zebras FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kingborough Lions win (69%). Probabilities: Kingborough Lions 69%, draw 17%, Clarence Zebras FC 14%.

How many goals are expected in Kingborough Lions vs Clarence Zebras FC?

The model expects 3.85 goals (Kingborough Lions 2.68 · Clarence Zebras FC 1.17), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Kingborough Lions vs Clarence Zebras FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.