Football · Australia Tasmania Premier League · 01/08, 06:00

Prediction: South Hobart vs Launceston City

Team pages: South Hobart · Launceston City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.95Total

South Hobart2.8

Launceston City1.15

1X2

71% 16% 13%

South Hobart Draw Launceston City

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

South Hobart 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWDWLWW

Launceston City 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWWLWD

Head-to-head

South Hobart 3–1–2 Launceston City (6 last)

Launceston City1-8South Hobart
South Hobart1-3Launceston City
Launceston City1-2South Hobart
South Hobart2-2Launceston City
South Hobart2-1Launceston City
Launceston City4-2South Hobart

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · South Hobart 1573 · Launceston City 1520

	South Hobart	Draw	Launceston City
Our model	71%	17%	12%
Market	72%	16%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.95 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours South Hobart (rating 1573 vs 1520).
H2H favours South Hobart: 3-1-2.
High corners: 15.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	South Hobart	Launceston City
Goals for / against (FT)	3.1 / 1	1.6 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.2	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.9 / 9.7	2.5 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.75

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.95

2 (+2)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
05:10 +2’	1.25	5.75	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · South Hobart 3–1–2 Launceston City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Australia Tasmania Premier League	Launceston City	1-8 HT 0-2	South Hobart
09/08/25 Australia Tasmania Premier League	South Hobart	1-3 HT 0-1	Launceston City
14/06/25 Australia Tasmania Premier League	Launceston City	1-2 HT 0-0	South Hobart
06/04/25 Australia Tasmania Premier League	South Hobart	2-2 HT 1-1	Launceston City
07/09/24 Australia Tasmania Premier League	South Hobart	2-1 HT 0-1	Launceston City
13/07/24 Australia Tasmania Premier League	Launceston City	4-2 HT 1-2	South Hobart

Standings · Australia Tasmania Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	South Hobart	16	13	2	1	57	13	41
2	Devonport City	16	12	1	3	49	18	37
3	Kingborough Lions	16	12	1	3	46	15	37
4	Launceston City	16	10	1	5	39	27	31
5	Riverside Olympic	16	7	3	6	28	25	24
6	Clarence Zebras FC	16	7	3	6	28	26	24
7	South East United FC	16	5	0	11	19	47	15
8	Glenorchy Knights FC	16	4	2	10	20	30	14
9	Launceston United	16	1	2	13	16	57	5
10	Ulverstone	16	1	1	14	12	56	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	South Hobart	Launceston City
Devonport City	3-1 W	1-3 L
Ulverstone	2-0 W	3-1 W
South East United FC	0-1 L	1-0 W
Glenorchy Knights FC	6-1 W	2-1 W
Kingborough Lions	1-1 D	1-3 L
Clarence Zebras FC	3-1 W	2-1 W
Launceston United	4-1 W	4-2 W
Riverside Olympic	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: South Hobart (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

South Hobart

WWDWWDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Devonport City Australia Tasmania Premier League	2-0	3-1	9	6	W
11/07	Ulverstone Australia Tasmania Premier League	2-0	2-0	10	4	W
05/07	South East United FC Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-0	0-1	9	5	L
27/06	Glenorchy Knights FC Australia Tasmania Premier League	2-0	6-1	14	2	W
21/06	Kingborough Lions Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-0	1-1	6	6	D
13/06	Clarence Zebras FC Australia Tasmania Premier League	1-0	3-1	14	3	W
30/05	Launceston United Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-0	4-1	15	1	W
23/05	Riverside Olympic Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
09/05	Launceston City Australia Tasmania Premier League	2-0	8-1	7	0	W
02/05	Devonport City Australia Tasmania Premier League	2-1	3-2	7	4	W

Launceston City

LLLWWWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Riverside Olympic Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
22/07	Launceston United Australia Tasmania Premier League	2-1	4-2	10	0	W
18/07	Kingborough Lions Australia Tasmania Premier League	1-2	1-3	8	1	L
11/07	Clarence Zebras FC Australia Tasmania Premier League	2-0	2-1	0	4	W
28/06	South East United FC Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
14/06	Ulverstone Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-0	3-1	9	1	W
30/05	Glenorchy Knights FC Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-0	2-1	8	4	W
24/05	Devonport City Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-1	1-3	7	6	L
09/05	South Hobart Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-2	1-8	4	0	L
02/05	Kingborough Lions Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-1	1-2	3	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in South Hobart vs Launceston City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a South Hobart win (71%). Probabilities: South Hobart 71%, draw 16%, Launceston City 13%.

How many goals are expected in South Hobart vs Launceston City?

The model expects 3.95 goals (South Hobart 2.8 · Launceston City 1.15), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in South Hobart vs Launceston City?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.