Football · Brazil Serie A · 24/10, 21:30

Prediction: Mirassol vs Sao Paulo

Team pages: Mirassol · Sao Paulo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

Mirassol1.26

Sao Paulo1.01

1X2

41% 30% 29%

Mirassol Draw Sao Paulo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Mirassol 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDDLWDWDLW

Sao Paulo 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DLWWLWLLWW

Head-to-head

Mirassol 3–1–2 Sao Paulo (6 last)

Sao Paulo1-0Mirassol
Mirassol3-0Sao Paulo
Mirassol3-0Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo0-2Mirassol
Sao Paulo4-1Mirassol
Mirassol1-1Sao Paulo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mirassol 1509 · Sao Paulo 1492

	Mirassol	Draw	Sao Paulo
Our model	41%	31%	28%
Market	42%	29%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Mirassol: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mirassol	Sao Paulo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.8	4.2 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.4	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.20

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.35 ★
2	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +9’	2.25	3.20	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:12 +21’	2.21	3.31	3.28
03:14 +19’	2.23▲	3.35▲	3.32▲
11:57 +74’	2.24▲	3.35	3.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mirassol 3–1–2 Sao Paulo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	1-0 HT 0-0	Mirassol
12/01/26 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Mirassol	3-0 HT 2-0	Sao Paulo
19/10/25 Brazil Serie A	Mirassol	3-0 HT 2-0	Sao Paulo
24/05/25 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	0-2 HT 0-0	Mirassol
05/02/25 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Sao Paulo	4-1 HT 2-1	Mirassol
23/01/24 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Mirassol	1-1 HT 1-1	Sao Paulo

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	31	19	9	3	54	22	66
2	Flamengo	30	19	7	4	58	25	64
3	Athletico Paranaense	31	15	8	8	49	37	53
4	Fluminense	30	14	9	7	48	37	51
5	Atletico Mineiro	31	14	8	9	42	35	50
6	EC Bahia	30	13	10	7	44	36	49
7	Cruzeiro	30	14	6	10	46	44	48
8	Sao Paulo	31	12	6	13	36	35	42
9	Santos	30	11	9	10	46	45	42
10	Bragantino	30	11	7	12	38	35	40
11	Botafogo	31	10	9	12	44	48	39
12	Coritiba	31	10	9	12	38	49	39
13	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	33	44	36
14	Mirassol	31	9	9	13	36	44	36
15	Vasco da Gama	30	9	8	13	36	43	35
16	Corinthians	30	8	8	14	31	38	32
17	Internacional	31	7	11	13	33	40	32
18	Gremio	30	7	10	13	32	40	31
19	Remo	30	5	10	15	33	48	25
20	Chapecoense	30	3	9	18	30	62	18

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mirassol	Sao Paulo
Internacional	2-0 W	1-0 W
Bragantino	1-1 D	2-1 W
Vitoria	2-2 D	2-1 W
Coritiba	2-1 W	1-1 D
Palmeiras	1-1 D	0-2 L
Santos	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Mirassol (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mirassol

LDDLWDWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-0	5	9	W
12/10	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
08/10	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
19/09	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-0	3	1	W
13/09	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-2	2-2	12	10	D
06/09	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	7	5	W
03/09	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	7	2	L
30/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
23/08	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
16/08	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-5	4	3	L

Sao Paulo

DLWWLWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
11/10	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	6	8	W
08/10	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	8	3	L
03/10	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	14	4	L
20/09	Internacional Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
12/09	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
05/09	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-0	16	2	W
30/08	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-1	9	5	W
23/08	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
16/08	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mirassol vs Sao Paulo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mirassol win (41%). Probabilities: Mirassol 41%, draw 30%, Sao Paulo 29%.

How many goals are expected in Mirassol vs Sao Paulo?

The model expects 2.26 goals (Mirassol 1.26 · Sao Paulo 1.01), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Sao Paulo?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.