Football · Estonia Esiliiga B · 10/09, 17:00

Prediction: Parnu JK Vaprus II vs Johvi FC Phoenix

Team pages: Parnu JK Vaprus II · Johvi FC Phoenix

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.53Total

Parnu JK Vaprus II2.36

Johvi FC Phoenix2.17

1X2

43% 21% 36%

Parnu JK Vaprus II Draw Johvi FC Phoenix

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Parnu JK Vaprus II 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLLDDWWW

Johvi FC Phoenix 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDWLLWWL

Head-to-head

Parnu JK Vaprus II 1–2 Johvi FC Phoenix (3 last)

Johvi FC Phoenix4-2Parnu JK Vaprus II
Johvi FC Phoenix4-3Parnu JK Vaprus II
Parnu JK Vaprus II3-1Johvi FC Phoenix

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Parnu JK Vaprus II 1525 · Johvi FC Phoenix 1519

	Parnu JK Vaprus II	Draw	Johvi FC Phoenix
Our model	43%	20%	36%
Market	43%	21%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 4.53 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Johvi FC Phoenix: 2-0-1.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Parnu JK Vaprus II	Johvi FC Phoenix
Goals for / against (FT)	3.3 / 1.9	2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1.3	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.5	3.1 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	5.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.10

X4.20

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.98

Under 4.51.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 4.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:44 +9’	2.10	4.20	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Parnu JK Vaprus II 1–0–2 Johvi FC Phoenix

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/07/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	Johvi FC Phoenix	4-2 HT 4-1	Parnu JK Vaprus II
25/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	Johvi FC Phoenix	4-3 HT 0-1	Parnu JK Vaprus II
03/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	Parnu JK Vaprus II	3-1 HT 2-0	Johvi FC Phoenix

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	27	17	2	8	71	46	53
2	JK Trans Narva II	26	16	3	7	65	34	51
3	JK Tammeka Tartu II	27	14	4	9	71	56	46
4	Johvi FC Phoenix	27	14	3	10	61	61	45
5	Parnu JK Vaprus II	27	13	4	10	81	55	43
6	FA Tartu Kalev	27	13	2	12	65	51	41
7	JK Viljandi Tulevik	27	12	5	10	67	54	41
8	Tabasalu FC Charma	27	10	2	15	40	73	32
9	JK Tallinna Kalev II	27	6	5	16	52	70	23
10	Tallinna JK Legion	26	3	2	21	23	96	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Parnu JK Vaprus II	Johvi FC Phoenix
JK Tallinna Kalev II	7-0 W	1-3 L
Tallinna JK Legion	5-1 W	1-0 W
JK Viljandi Tulevik	2-2 D	0-0 D
JK Tammeka Tartu II	2-2 D	3-2 W
FC Levadia Tallinn U19	2-3 L	2-6 L
JK Trans Narva II	1-4 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Parnu JK Vaprus II (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Parnu JK Vaprus II

DWLLLDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-0	7-0	3	0	W
30/08	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	5-1	7	6	W
24/08	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	4-0	6-0	9	2	W
20/08	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	2-2	9	5	D
10/08	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	2-2	5	7	D
03/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	2-3	13	5	L
19/07	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	1-4	2	6	L
12/07	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	1-4	2-4	6	4	L
22/06	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	4-1	3	5	W
19/06	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	2-2	8	5	D

Johvi FC Phoenix

WLWDWLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	2-6	2	4	L
29/08	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	2-0	3-0	8	7	W
23/08	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	3-2	2	6	W
15/08	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
09/08	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	1-3	8	8	L
01/08	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
25/07	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	0-0	12	6	D
12/07	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	4-1	4-2	4	4	W
22/06	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	0-2	3	6	L
18/06	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	2-0	6-1	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Parnu JK Vaprus II vs Johvi FC Phoenix?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Parnu JK Vaprus II win (43%). Probabilities: Parnu JK Vaprus II 43%, draw 21%, Johvi FC Phoenix 36%.

How many goals are expected in Parnu JK Vaprus II vs Johvi FC Phoenix?

The model expects 4.53 goals (Parnu JK Vaprus II 2.36 · Johvi FC Phoenix 2.17), with a 52% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Parnu JK Vaprus II vs Johvi FC Phoenix?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.