Football · Estonia Esiliiga B · 14/09, 18:00

Prediction: Tabasalu FC Charma vs Tallinna JK Legion

Team pages: Tabasalu FC Charma · Tallinna JK Legion

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.2Total

Tabasalu FC Charma2.55

Tallinna JK Legion1.65

1X2

57% 19% 24%

Tabasalu FC Charma Draw Tallinna JK Legion

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Tabasalu FC Charma 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Tallinna JK Legion 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LWLLLDLLLL

Head-to-head

Tabasalu FC Charma 1–1–4 Tallinna JK Legion (6 last)

Tallinna JK Legion2-0Tabasalu FC Charma
Tabasalu FC Charma2-3Tallinna JK Legion
Tallinna JK Legion3-2Tabasalu FC Charma
Tallinna JK Legion0-3Tabasalu FC Charma
Tabasalu FC Charma1-4Tallinna JK Legion
Tallinna JK Legion2-2Tabasalu FC Charma

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tabasalu FC Charma 1472 · Tallinna JK Legion 1400

	Tabasalu FC Charma	Draw	Tallinna JK Legion
Our model	57%	20%	23%
Market	57%	19%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 4.2 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tabasalu FC Charma (rating 1472 vs 1400).
H2H favours Tallinna JK Legion: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tabasalu FC Charma	Tallinna JK Legion
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.4	1 / 3.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.4	0.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.2	1.6 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.75

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.88

2 (+1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 4.252.00

Under 4.251.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.57▲	Bet365 1.57
X	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 4.80 ★
2	4.20 → 3.75▼	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
04:17 +4’	1.50	4.75	4.20
12:57 +6’	1.57▲	4.75	3.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:13 +48’	1.52	4.85	3.79
09:12 +50’	1.55▲	4.77▼	3.66▼
10:18 +43’	1.55▼	4.80▲	3.67▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tabasalu FC Charma 1–1–4 Tallinna JK Legion

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	Tallinna JK Legion	2-0 HT 1-0	Tabasalu FC Charma
27/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	Tabasalu FC Charma	2-3 HT 1-0	Tallinna JK Legion
24/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	Tallinna JK Legion	3-2 HT 1-1	Tabasalu FC Charma
18/10/25 Estonia Esiliiga B	Tallinna JK Legion	0-3 HT 0-0	Tabasalu FC Charma
11/07/25 Estonia Esiliiga B	Tabasalu FC Charma	1-4 HT 0-2	Tallinna JK Legion
01/06/25 Estonia Esiliiga B	Tallinna JK Legion	2-2 HT 1-1	Tabasalu FC Charma

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	JK Trans Narva II	27	17	3	7	66	34	54
2	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	28	17	2	9	71	47	53
3	JK Tammeka Tartu II	28	15	4	9	74	58	49
4	Johvi FC Phoenix	28	15	3	10	64	63	48
5	FA Tartu Kalev	29	15	2	12	71	52	47
6	Parnu JK Vaprus II	29	13	4	12	83	62	43
7	JK Viljandi Tulevik	28	12	5	11	69	57	41
8	Tabasalu FC Charma	28	10	2	16	41	77	32
9	JK Tallinna Kalev II	28	7	5	16	56	71	26
10	Tallinna JK Legion	27	3	2	22	24	98	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tabasalu FC Charma	Tallinna JK Legion
JK Tallinna Kalev II	1-4 L	3-3 D
JK Tammeka Tartu II	3-2 W	0-3 L
JK Trans Narva II	0-4 L	1-3 L
Parnu JK Vaprus II	0-6 L	1-5 L
FC Levadia Tallinn U19	0-3 L	0-1 L
JK Viljandi Tulevik	2-0 W	0-3 L
FA Tartu Kalev	3-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 4 L	0 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Tallinna JK Legion (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tabasalu FC Charma

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	1-4	4	3	L
05/09	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	3-2	2	4	W
29/08	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-3	0-4	2	2	L
24/08	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-4	0-6	6	2	L
16/08	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
09/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	0-3	6	2	L
18/07	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
11/07	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
21/06	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	3-1	10	4	W
18/06	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	3-0	3-1	–	–	W

Tallinna JK Legion

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	1-2	3	2	L
05/09	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	0-3	4	1	L
30/08	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	1-5	7	6	L
24/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
21/08	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	3-3	9	3	D
15/08	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	0-3	1	3	L
09/08	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	1-3	2	8	L
01/08	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
18/07	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	2-0	9	6	W
12/07	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	1-5	2-10	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tabasalu FC Charma vs Tallinna JK Legion?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tabasalu FC Charma win (57%). Probabilities: Tabasalu FC Charma 57%, draw 19%, Tallinna JK Legion 24%.

How many goals are expected in Tabasalu FC Charma vs Tallinna JK Legion?

The model expects 4.2 goals (Tabasalu FC Charma 2.55 · Tallinna JK Legion 1.65), with a 53% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tabasalu FC Charma vs Tallinna JK Legion?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.