Football · Estonia Esiliiga B · 18/09, 18:00
Prediction: Parnu JK Vaprus II vs Tallinna JK Legion
Team pages: Parnu JK Vaprus II · Tallinna JK Legion
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.6Total
Parnu JK Vaprus II3.3
Tallinna JK Legion1.3
1X2
Parnu JK Vaprus II
Draw
Tallinna JK Legion
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
3-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Parnu JK Vaprus II
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Tallinna JK Legion
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Parnu JK Vaprus II
2–1–0
Tallinna JK Legion
(3 last)
- Tallinna JK Legion1-5Parnu JK Vaprus II
- Tallinna JK Legion1-4Parnu JK Vaprus II
- Parnu JK Vaprus II1-1Tallinna JK Legion
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Parnu JK Vaprus II 1487 · Tallinna JK Legion 1395
| Parnu JK Vaprus II | Draw | Tallinna JK Legion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 14% | 11% |
| Market | 78% | 12% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.6 goals · Bet365 line 4.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Parnu JK Vaprus II (rating 1487 vs 1395).
- H2H favours Parnu JK Vaprus II: 2-1-0.
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Parnu JK Vaprus II | Tallinna JK Legion | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.9 / 2.3 | 0.9 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 1.7 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 6.7 | 1.6 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.2 | 4.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Parnu JK Vaprus II 2–1–0 Tallinna JK Legion
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/26 Estonia Esiliiga B | Tallinna JK Legion | 1-5 HT 1-1 | Parnu JK Vaprus II |
| 22/06/26 Estonia Esiliiga B | Tallinna JK Legion | 1-4 HT 0-1 | Parnu JK Vaprus II |
| 19/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga B | Parnu JK Vaprus II | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Tallinna JK Legion |
Standings · Estonia Esiliiga B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JK Trans Narva II | 28 | 18 | 3 | 7 | 67 | 34 | 57 |
| 2 | FC Levadia Tallinn U19 | 29 | 17 | 2 | 10 | 74 | 52 | 53 |
| 3 | Johvi FC Phoenix | 29 | 16 | 3 | 10 | 68 | 66 | 51 |
| 4 | JK Tammeka Tartu II | 29 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 74 | 59 | 49 |
| 5 | FA Tartu Kalev | 29 | 15 | 2 | 12 | 71 | 52 | 47 |
| 6 | Parnu JK Vaprus II | 30 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 95 | 62 | 46 |
| 7 | JK Viljandi Tulevik | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 74 | 60 | 44 |
| 8 | Tabasalu FC Charma | 29 | 10 | 3 | 16 | 42 | 78 | 33 |
| 9 | JK Tallinna Kalev II | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 59 | 75 | 26 |
| 10 | Tallinna JK Legion | 29 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 25 | 111 | 12 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Parnu JK Vaprus II | Tallinna JK Legion |
|---|---|---|
| FA Tartu Kalev | 0-4 L | 1-2 L |
| Johvi FC Phoenix | 2-3 L | 0-1 L |
| JK Tallinna Kalev II | 7-0 W | 3-3 D |
| Tabasalu FC Charma | 6-0 W | 1-1 D |
| JK Viljandi Tulevik | 2-2 D | 0-3 L |
| JK Tammeka Tartu II | 2-2 D | 0-3 L |
| FC Levadia Tallinn U19 | 2-3 L | 0-1 L |
| JK Trans Narva II | 1-4 L | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 4 L | 0 W 2 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Parnu JK Vaprus II (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Parnu JK Vaprus II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B |
0-3 | 0-4 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 10/09 | Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B |
1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 06/09 | JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B |
2-0 | 7-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 30/08 | Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B |
1-1 | 5-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 24/08 | Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B |
4-0 | 6-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 20/08 | JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B |
1-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 10/08 | JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 03/08 | FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B |
0-2 | 2-3 | 13 | 5 | L |
| 19/07 | JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B |
1-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 12/07 | Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B |
1-4 | 2-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
Tallinna JK Legion
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 10/09 | FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 30/08 | Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B |
1-1 | 1-5 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 24/08 | FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 21/08 | JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B |
1-1 | 3-3 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 15/08 | JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B |
2-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 09/08 | JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 01/08 | Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 18/07 | Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Parnu JK Vaprus II vs Tallinna JK Legion?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Parnu JK Vaprus II win (77%). Probabilities: Parnu JK Vaprus II 77%, draw 13%, Tallinna JK Legion 11%.
How many goals are expected in Parnu JK Vaprus II vs Tallinna JK Legion?
The model expects 4.6 goals (Parnu JK Vaprus II 3.3 · Tallinna JK Legion 1.3), with a 52% chance of under 4.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Parnu JK Vaprus II vs Tallinna JK Legion?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.