Football · Estonia Esiliiga B · 15/09, 16:30

Prediction: JK Trans Narva II vs JK Tammeka Tartu II

Team pages: JK Trans Narva II · JK Tammeka Tartu II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.05Total

JK Trans Narva II2.79

JK Tammeka Tartu II1.26

1X2

69% 16% 15%

JK Trans Narva II Draw JK Tammeka Tartu II

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Trans Narva II 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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JK Tammeka Tartu II 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

JK Trans Narva II 1–1–4 JK Tammeka Tartu II (6 last)

JK Tammeka Tartu II2-1JK Trans Narva II
JK Tammeka Tartu II2-1JK Trans Narva II
JK Trans Narva II4-1JK Tammeka Tartu II
JK Trans Narva II0-2JK Tammeka Tartu II
JK Tammeka Tartu II1-0JK Trans Narva II
JK Trans Narva II1-1JK Tammeka Tartu II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Trans Narva II 1572 · JK Tammeka Tartu II 1475

	JK Trans Narva II	Draw	JK Tammeka Tartu II
Our model	69%	17%	14%
Market	70%	16%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 4.05 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JK Trans Narva II (rating 1572 vs 1475).
H2H favours JK Tammeka Tartu II: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Trans Narva II	JK Tammeka Tartu II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 0.8	2.2 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.8 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6	1.9 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.28

X5.75

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.82

2 (+1.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.95

Under 4.251.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28
X	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:23 +44’	1.28	5.75	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Trans Narva II 1–1–4 JK Tammeka Tartu II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/07/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Tammeka Tartu II	2-1 HT 0-0	JK Trans Narva II
24/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Tammeka Tartu II	2-1 HT 1-0	JK Trans Narva II
23/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Trans Narva II	4-1 HT 3-0	JK Tammeka Tartu II
04/11/24 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Trans Narva II	0-2 HT 0-1	JK Tammeka Tartu II
01/09/24 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Tammeka Tartu II	1-0 HT 0-0	JK Trans Narva II
06/07/24 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Trans Narva II	1-1 HT 0-1	JK Tammeka Tartu II

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	JK Trans Narva II	27	17	3	7	66	34	54
2	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	28	17	2	9	71	47	53
3	JK Tammeka Tartu II	28	15	4	9	74	58	49
4	Johvi FC Phoenix	28	15	3	10	64	63	48
5	FA Tartu Kalev	29	15	2	12	71	52	47
6	Parnu JK Vaprus II	29	13	4	12	83	62	43
7	JK Viljandi Tulevik	28	12	5	11	69	57	41
8	Tabasalu FC Charma	28	10	2	16	41	77	32
9	JK Tallinna Kalev II	28	7	5	16	56	71	26
10	Tallinna JK Legion	27	3	2	22	24	98	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Trans Narva II	JK Tammeka Tartu II
FC Levadia Tallinn U19	1-0 W	2-5 L
FA Tartu Kalev	1-0 W	1-2 L
Tabasalu FC Charma	4-0 W	2-3 L
JK Viljandi Tulevik	3-3 D	3-2 W
Johvi FC Phoenix	1-0 W	2-3 L
Tallinna JK Legion	3-1 W	3-0 W
JK Tallinna Kalev II	5-0 W	5-4 W
Parnu JK Vaprus II	4-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	7 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: JK Trans Narva II (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Trans Narva II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
06/09	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
29/08	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	3-0	4-0	9	2	W
23/08	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	2-2	3-3	6	2	D
19/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	0-1	7	1	L
15/08	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
09/08	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	3-1	3	8	W
01/08	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-0	5-0	–	–	W
19/07	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	4-1	4	6	W
12/07	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	1-2	12	4	L

JK Tammeka Tartu II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	3-2	10	10	W
05/09	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	2-3	5	4	L
31/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	2-5	3	9	L
23/08	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	2-3	1	6	L
20/08	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	3-0	4	3	W
10/08	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-0	2-2	7	7	D
01/08	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	0-0	8	8	D
20/07	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-3	5-4	3	6	W
12/07	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	2-1	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Trans Narva II vs JK Tammeka Tartu II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JK Trans Narva II win (69%). Probabilities: JK Trans Narva II 69%, draw 16%, JK Tammeka Tartu II 15%.

How many goals are expected in JK Trans Narva II vs JK Tammeka Tartu II?

The model expects 4.05 goals (JK Trans Narva II 2.79 · JK Tammeka Tartu II 1.26), with a 54% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Trans Narva II vs JK Tammeka Tartu II?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.