Football · Estonia Esiliiga B · 10/09, 16:45

Prediction: Tallinna JK Legion vs FA Tartu Kalev

Team pages: Tallinna JK Legion · FA Tartu Kalev

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.48Total

Tallinna JK Legion1.34

FA Tartu Kalev3.14

1X2

12% 16% 72%

Tallinna JK Legion Draw FA Tartu Kalev

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-3 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Tallinna JK Legion 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLDLLL

FA Tartu Kalev 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWWDLL

Head-to-head

Tallinna JK Legion 1–5 FA Tartu Kalev (6 last)

FA Tartu Kalev10-2Tallinna JK Legion
Tallinna JK Legion0-6FA Tartu Kalev
FA Tartu Kalev1-0Tallinna JK Legion
FA Tartu Kalev4-3Tallinna JK Legion
Tallinna JK Legion0-1FA Tartu Kalev
FA Tartu Kalev0-1Tallinna JK Legion

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tallinna JK Legion 1353 · FA Tartu Kalev 1511

	Tallinna JK Legion	Draw	FA Tartu Kalev
Our model	13%	15%	72%
Market	12%	16%	72%

Estimated total (ours) 4.48 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FA Tartu Kalev (rating 1353 vs 1511).
H2H favours FA Tartu Kalev: 5-0-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tallinna JK Legion	FA Tartu Kalev
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 3.2	2.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.3	1.2 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.9	2.1 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	4.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

17.50

X5.50

21.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.80

2 (-2)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.85

Under 4.251.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 4.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:02 +4’	7.50	5.50	1.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tallinna JK Legion 1–0–5 FA Tartu Kalev

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/07/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	FA Tartu Kalev	10-2 HT 5-1	Tallinna JK Legion
24/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	Tallinna JK Legion	0-6 HT 0-3	FA Tartu Kalev
11/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	FA Tartu Kalev	1-0 HT 0-0	Tallinna JK Legion
01/11/25 Estonia Esiliiga B	FA Tartu Kalev	4-3 HT 2-2	Tallinna JK Legion
02/08/25 Estonia Esiliiga B	Tallinna JK Legion	0-1 HT 0-1	FA Tartu Kalev
05/07/25 Estonia Esiliiga B	FA Tartu Kalev	0-1 HT 0-0	Tallinna JK Legion

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	27	17	2	8	71	46	53
2	JK Trans Narva II	26	16	3	7	65	34	51
3	JK Tammeka Tartu II	27	14	4	9	71	56	46
4	Johvi FC Phoenix	27	14	3	10	61	61	45
5	Parnu JK Vaprus II	27	13	4	10	81	55	43
6	FA Tartu Kalev	27	13	2	12	65	51	41
7	JK Viljandi Tulevik	27	12	5	10	67	54	41
8	Tabasalu FC Charma	27	10	2	15	40	73	32
9	JK Tallinna Kalev II	27	6	5	16	52	70	23
10	Tallinna JK Legion	26	3	2	21	23	96	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tallinna JK Legion	FA Tartu Kalev
JK Viljandi Tulevik	0-3 L	4-2 W
FC Levadia Tallinn U19	0-1 L	5-0 W
JK Tallinna Kalev II	3-3 D	1-1 D
JK Tammeka Tartu II	0-3 L	2-1 W
JK Trans Narva II	1-3 L	0-1 L
Johvi FC Phoenix	0-1 L	0-3 L
Tabasalu FC Charma	2-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FA Tartu Kalev (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tallinna JK Legion

LLWLLLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	0-3	4	1	L
30/08	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	1-5	7	6	L
24/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
21/08	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	3-3	9	3	D
15/08	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	0-3	1	3	L
09/08	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	1-3	2	8	L
01/08	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
18/07	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	2-0	9	6	W
12/07	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	1-5	2-10	–	–	L
05/07	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-3	2-3	5	4	L

FA Tartu Kalev

LLLWWWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	0-1	1	6	L
29/08	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	0-3	7	7	L
25/08	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	1-1	12	5	D
20/08	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
08/08	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	4-2	11	5	W
19/07	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	5-0	4	2	W
12/07	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	5-1	10-2	–	–	W
21/06	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	1-3	4	4	L
18/06	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	2-3	5	4	L
13/06	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	3-4	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tallinna JK Legion vs FA Tartu Kalev?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FA Tartu Kalev win (72%). Probabilities: Tallinna JK Legion 12%, draw 16%, FA Tartu Kalev 72%.

How many goals are expected in Tallinna JK Legion vs FA Tartu Kalev?

The model expects 4.48 goals (Tallinna JK Legion 1.34 · FA Tartu Kalev 3.14), with a 51% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tallinna JK Legion vs FA Tartu Kalev?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.