Football · Canada Premier League · 20/08, 01:00

Prediction: Forge FC vs Supra du Quebec

Team pages: Forge FC · Supra du Quebec

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

Forge FC2.08

Supra du Quebec1.05

1X2

60% 23% 17%

Forge FC Draw Supra du Quebec

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Forge FC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWWDLL

Supra du Quebec 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLWDDL

Head-to-head

Forge FC 2–0 Supra du Quebec (2 last)

Supra du Quebec1-2Forge FC
Forge FC1-0Supra du Quebec

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Forge FC 1569 · Supra du Quebec 1478

	Forge FC	Draw	Supra du Quebec
Our model	60%	22%	17%
Market	60%	23%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Forge FC (rating 1569 vs 1478).
H2H favours Forge FC: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Forge FC	Supra du Quebec
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1	1.9 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/33/22%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.3	1.4 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.48

X3.80

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:43 +5’	1.48	3.80	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Forge FC 2–0–0 Supra du Quebec

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/07/26 Canada Premier League	Supra du Quebec	1-2 HT 0-1	Forge FC
13/05/26 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Supra du Quebec

Standings · Canada Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cavalry FC	17	11	4	2	33	10	37
2	Forge FC	16	11	2	3	24	11	35
3	Vancouver FC	17	8	3	6	26	17	27
4	Atletico Ottawa	17	8	3	6	27	30	27
5	Supra du Quebec	16	5	3	8	23	29	18
6	HFX Wanderers	18	4	5	9	24	30	17
7	Inter Toronto	15	4	5	6	20	34	17
8	Pacific FC (CA)	16	0	5	11	18	34	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Forge FC	Supra du Quebec
Cavalry FC	1-2 L	1-1 D
Vancouver FC	0-1 L	1-5 L
HFX Wanderers	0-0 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Supra du Quebec (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Forge FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	1-0	1-2	1	7	L
08/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
03/08	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
26/07	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	1-1	3-1	9	5	W
12/07	CS Saint-Laurent Canada Championships	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
08/07	CS Saint-Laurent Canada Championships	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/07	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
01/07	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-2	3-2	7	2	W
11/06	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
07/06	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	2-0	4-1	4	3	W

Supra du Quebec

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-0	1-2	6	5	L
12/08	Atletico Ottawa Canada Championships	2-0	3-3	4	5	D
09/08	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
01/08	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
29/07	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
25/07	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-2	3-2	2	2	W
18/07	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-2	1-5	5	3	L
09/07	Atletico Ottawa Canada Championships	1-0	3-1	4	3	W
05/07	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-1	1-2	2	6	L
10/06	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	3-1	3-5	3	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Forge FC vs Supra du Quebec?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Forge FC win (60%). Probabilities: Forge FC 60%, draw 23%, Supra du Quebec 17%.

How many goals are expected in Forge FC vs Supra du Quebec?

The model expects 3.13 goals (Forge FC 2.08 · Supra du Quebec 1.05), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Forge FC vs Supra du Quebec?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.