Football · Canada Premier League · 22/08, 22:30

Prediction: Cavalry FC vs Atletico Ottawa

Team pages: Cavalry FC · Atletico Ottawa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.27Total

Cavalry FC2.18

Atletico Ottawa1.09

1X2

61% 22% 17%

Cavalry FC Draw Atletico Ottawa

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Cavalry FC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Atletico Ottawa 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Cavalry FC 2–2–2 Atletico Ottawa (6 last)

Atletico Ottawa0-3Cavalry FC
Cavalry FC3-1Atletico Ottawa
Atletico Ottawa1-1Cavalry FC
Atletico Ottawa3-0Cavalry FC
Atletico Ottawa2-2Cavalry FC
Cavalry FC0-2Atletico Ottawa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cavalry FC 1556 · Atletico Ottawa 1533

	Cavalry FC	Draw	Atletico Ottawa
Our model	61%	22%	17%
Market	61%	22%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.27 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cavalry FC	Atletico Ottawa
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.7	2.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.1	0.6 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.2	2.4 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.10

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 17:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.50▲	Bet365 1.50
X	4.00 → 4.10▲	Pinn 4.22 ★
2	5.25 → 5.50▲	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 9.2% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
11:44 +22’	1.48	4.00	5.25
16:27 +3’	1.50▲	4.20▲	5.25
15:09 +10’	1.48▼	4.20	5.25
22:39 +21’	1.53▲	4.10▼	5.25
11:30 +3’	1.50▼	4.20▲	5.25
17:13 +4’	1.50	4.10▼	5.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:09	1.50	4.20	5.31
22:59 +1’	1.55▲	4.06▼	5.03▼
11:27 +6’	1.53▼	4.10▲	5.16▲
17:15 +1’	1.49▼	4.22▲	5.49▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cavalry FC 2–2–2 Atletico Ottawa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	0-3 HT 0-3	Cavalry FC
12/04/26 Canada Premier League	Cavalry FC	3-1 HT 2-0	Atletico Ottawa
09/11/25 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	1-1 HT 1-1	Cavalry FC
27/09/25 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	3-0 HT 1-0	Cavalry FC
24/08/25 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	2-2 HT 0-2	Cavalry FC
29/06/25 Canada Premier League	Cavalry FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Atletico Ottawa

Standings · Canada Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Forge FC	17	12	2	3	27	13	38
2	Cavalry FC	17	11	4	2	33	10	37
3	Atletico Ottawa	18	9	3	6	31	30	30
4	Vancouver FC	18	8	3	7	26	21	27
5	Supra du Quebec	17	5	3	9	25	32	18
6	HFX Wanderers	18	4	5	9	24	30	17
7	Inter Toronto	15	4	5	6	20	34	17
8	Pacific FC (CA)	16	0	5	11	18	34	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cavalry FC	Atletico Ottawa
Supra du Quebec	1-1 D	2-1 W
Inter Toronto	5-0 W	1-1 D
Vancouver FC	0-1 L	4-0 W
HFX Wanderers	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Ottawa (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cavalry FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
09/08	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
02/08	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	1-0	5-0	6	2	W
29/07	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	1-0	2-1	12	6	W
25/07	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
18/07	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	0	0	D
04/07	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	3-0	3-0	–	–	W
11/06	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	2-0	5-1	2	3	W
07/06	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-0	2-0	9	5	W
31/05	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	4	L

Atletico Ottawa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	1-0	4-0	1	3	W
16/08	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-0	2-1	4	5	W
08/08	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-1	2-1	2	3	W
02/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-3	1-3	6	5	L
26/07	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	1-0	3-2	6	5	W
18/07	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
04/07	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-3	0-3	–	–	L
01/07	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	3-0	3-1	2	2	W
10/06	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	1-3	5-3	7	0	W
06/06	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-2	1-2	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cavalry FC vs Atletico Ottawa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cavalry FC win (61%). Probabilities: Cavalry FC 61%, draw 22%, Atletico Ottawa 17%.

How many goals are expected in Cavalry FC vs Atletico Ottawa?

The model expects 3.27 goals (Cavalry FC 2.18 · Atletico Ottawa 1.09), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Atletico Ottawa?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.