Football · Canada Premier League · 29/08, 01:00

Prediction: Atletico Ottawa vs Inter Toronto

Team pages: Atletico Ottawa · Inter Toronto

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.5Total

Atletico Ottawa2.12

Inter Toronto1.38

1X2

53% 24% 23%

Atletico Ottawa Draw Inter Toronto

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Ottawa 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDLWWDLW

Inter Toronto 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWDWWDLLLD

Head-to-head

Atletico Ottawa 2–3–1 Inter Toronto (6 last)

Inter Toronto4-1Atletico Ottawa
Inter Toronto2-2Atletico Ottawa
Atletico Ottawa0-0Inter Toronto
Inter Toronto3-4Atletico Ottawa
Inter Toronto0-0Atletico Ottawa
Atletico Ottawa2-1Inter Toronto

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Ottawa 1521 · Inter Toronto 1468

	Atletico Ottawa	Draw	Inter Toronto
Our model	54%	23%	24%
Market	53%	24%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.5 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Ottawa (rating 1521 vs 1468).
H2H favours Atletico Ottawa: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Ottawa	Inter Toronto
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.8	1.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.9	1.3 / 2.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.70

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
20:11 +3’	1.70	3.70	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Ottawa 2–3–1 Inter Toronto

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Canada Premier League	Inter Toronto	4-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Ottawa
14/09/25 Canada Premier League	Inter Toronto	2-2 HT 1-1	Atletico Ottawa
03/08/25 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	0-0 HT 0-0	Inter Toronto
09/07/25 Canada Championships	Inter Toronto	3-4 HT 2-2	Atletico Ottawa
22/06/25 Canada Premier League	Inter Toronto	0-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Ottawa
12/06/25 Canada Championships	Atletico Ottawa	2-1 HT 2-1	Inter Toronto

Standings · Canada Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Forge FC	18	13	2	3	29	13	41
2	Cavalry FC	18	12	4	2	36	11	40
3	Atletico Ottawa	19	9	3	7	32	33	30
4	Vancouver FC	19	8	3	8	26	22	27
5	HFX Wanderers	19	5	5	9	25	30	20
6	Supra du Quebec	18	5	4	9	26	33	19
7	Inter Toronto	16	4	6	6	21	35	18
8	Pacific FC (CA)	17	0	5	12	18	36	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Ottawa	Inter Toronto
Supra du Quebec	5-3 W	1-1 D
Vancouver FC	1-2 L	1-0 W
Pacific FC (CA)	2-2 D	1-0 W
Forge FC	2-1 W	1-4 L
HFX Wanderers	1-0 W	1-1 D
Cavalry FC	1-3 L	1-5 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Ottawa (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Ottawa

LLWDLWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/06	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	1-3	5-3	7	0	W
06/06	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-2	1-2	3	4	L
31/05	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	0-1	2-2	9	4	D
24/05	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
17/05	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
02/05	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	0-0	1-4	3	5	L
26/04	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
19/04	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
12/04	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-2	1-3	4	4	L
04/04	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-1	0-2	2	4	L

Inter Toronto

DWDWWDLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	1-0	1-1	1	9	D
11/06	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-2	1-5	2	3	L
07/06	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-2	1-4	2	3	L
30/05	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-0	1-3	4	3	L
23/05	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
17/05	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
02/05	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-0	4-1	3	5	W
25/04	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
19/04	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	1-0	1-0	0	5	W
11/04	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	1-0	2-2	1	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Ottawa vs Inter Toronto?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Ottawa win (53%). Probabilities: Atletico Ottawa 53%, draw 24%, Inter Toronto 23%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Ottawa vs Inter Toronto?

The model expects 3.5 goals (Atletico Ottawa 2.12 · Inter Toronto 1.38), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Ottawa vs Inter Toronto?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.