Football · Canada Premier League · 29/08, 01:00

Prediction: Supra du Quebec vs Forge FC

Team pages: Supra du Quebec · Forge FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.56Total

Supra du Quebec0.98

Forge FC1.58

1X2

23% 26% 51%

Supra du Quebec Draw Forge FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Supra du Quebec 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Forge FC 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Supra du Quebec 0–1 Forge FC (1 last)

Forge FC1-0Supra du Quebec

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Supra du Quebec 1479 · Forge FC 1594

	Supra du Quebec	Draw	Forge FC
Our model	22%	28%	50%
Market	23%	25%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Forge FC (rating 1479 vs 1594).
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Supra du Quebec	Forge FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	1.5 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.4 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 6.3	2.1 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.80

X3.60

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.80

2 (-0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
20:08 +6’	3.80	3.60	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Supra du Quebec 0–0–1 Forge FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/05/26 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Supra du Quebec

Standings · Canada Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Forge FC	18	13	2	3	29	13	41
2	Cavalry FC	18	12	4	2	36	11	40
3	Atletico Ottawa	19	9	3	7	32	33	30
4	Vancouver FC	19	8	3	8	26	22	27
5	HFX Wanderers	19	5	5	9	25	30	20
6	Supra du Quebec	18	5	4	9	26	33	19
7	Inter Toronto	16	4	6	6	21	35	18
8	Pacific FC (CA)	17	0	5	12	18	36	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Supra du Quebec	Forge FC
Inter Toronto	1-1 D	4-1 W
Cavalry FC	1-2 L	1-0 W
Atletico Ottawa	3-5 L	1-2 L
Pacific FC (CA)	1-1 D	1-0 W
Vancouver FC	1-1 D	1-0 W
HFX Wanderers	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Forge FC (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Supra du Quebec

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	0-1	1-1	10	9	D
29/07	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
10/06	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	3-1	3-5	3	0	L
07/06	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
30/05	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	0-0	3-1	8	3	W
24/05	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
13/05	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
03/05	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
25/04	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	1-1	2-1	10	5	W
19/04	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-0	0-1	10	3	L

Forge FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/06	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
07/06	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	2-0	4-1	4	3	W
31/05	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
24/05	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-0	1-2	2	3	L
13/05	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
02/05	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
27/04	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
18/04	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
13/04	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
04/04	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	1-0	2-0	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Supra du Quebec vs Forge FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Forge FC win (51%). Probabilities: Supra du Quebec 23%, draw 26%, Forge FC 51%.

How many goals are expected in Supra du Quebec vs Forge FC?

The model expects 2.56 goals (Supra du Quebec 0.98 · Forge FC 1.58), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Supra du Quebec vs Forge FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.