Football · Canada Premier League · 29/08, 23:00

Prediction: Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC

Team pages: Cavalry FC · Vancouver FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Cavalry FC1.78

Vancouver FC0.88

1X2

58% 24% 18%

Cavalry FC Draw Vancouver FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Cavalry FC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Vancouver FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Cavalry FC 2–4–0 Vancouver FC (6 last)

Vancouver FC0-2Cavalry FC
Vancouver FC2-2Cavalry FC
Cavalry FC5-4Vancouver FC
Vancouver FC0-0Cavalry FC
Cavalry FC1-1Vancouver FC
Vancouver FC1-1Cavalry FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cavalry FC 1590 · Vancouver FC 1485

	Cavalry FC	Draw	Vancouver FC
Our model	58%	25%	17%
Market	58%	24%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cavalry FC (rating 1590 vs 1485).
H2H favours Cavalry FC: 2-4-0.
High corners: 13 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cavalry FC	Vancouver FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.5	0.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.1	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/70/0%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.8	3.1 / 7.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.2	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.53

X3.80

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.93

2 (+1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
20:22 +2’	1.53	3.80	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cavalry FC 2–4–0 Vancouver FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/05/26 Canada Premier League	Vancouver FC	0-2 HT 0-0	Cavalry FC
18/10/25 Canada Premier League	Vancouver FC	2-2 HT 0-0	Cavalry FC
18/08/25 Canada Premier League	Cavalry FC	5-4 HT 3-2	Vancouver FC
14/07/25 Canada Premier League	Vancouver FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Cavalry FC
09/07/25 Canada Championships	Cavalry FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Vancouver FC
22/05/25 Canada Championships	Vancouver FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Cavalry FC

Standings · Canada Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Forge FC	18	13	2	3	29	13	41
2	Cavalry FC	18	12	4	2	36	11	40
3	Atletico Ottawa	19	9	3	7	32	33	30
4	Vancouver FC	19	8	3	8	26	22	27
5	HFX Wanderers	19	5	5	9	25	30	20
6	Supra du Quebec	18	5	4	9	26	33	19
7	Inter Toronto	16	4	6	6	21	35	18
8	Pacific FC (CA)	17	0	5	12	18	36	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cavalry FC	Vancouver FC
Supra du Quebec	2-1 W	1-1 D
Inter Toronto	5-1 W	0-1 L
HFX Wanderers	2-0 W	0-1 L
Forge FC	0-1 L	0-1 L
Pacific FC (CA)	3-0 W	2-1 W
Atletico Ottawa	3-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Cavalry FC (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cavalry FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	1-0	2-1	12	6	W
11/06	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	2-0	5-1	2	3	W
07/06	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-0	2-0	9	5	W
31/05	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
24/05	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	0-0	3-0	5	2	W
18/05	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-0	2-0	3	6	W
03/05	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	8	W
25/04	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	1-1	1-1	13	6	D
18/04	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
12/04	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	2-0	3-1	3	4	W

Vancouver FC

LLDWLDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
15/06	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	0-1	2-1	10	2	W
06/06	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	2-0	2-1	6	4	W
30/05	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
24/05	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	9	4	D
18/05	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
04/05	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	1-0	3-1	5	3	W
26/04	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
19/04	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	0-1	0-1	10	5	L
13/04	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cavalry FC win (58%). Probabilities: Cavalry FC 58%, draw 24%, Vancouver FC 18%.

How many goals are expected in Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Cavalry FC 1.78 · Vancouver FC 0.88), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.