Football · Canada Premier League · 20/09, 18:00
Prediction: Atletico Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec
Team pages: Atletico Ottawa · Supra du Quebec
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.59Total
Atletico Ottawa1.78
Supra du Quebec1.81
1X2
Atletico Ottawa
Draw
Supra du Quebec
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Atletico Ottawa
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Supra du Quebec
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atletico Ottawa
3–1–1
Supra du Quebec
(5 last)
- Supra du Quebec1-2Atletico Ottawa
- Atletico Ottawa3-3Supra du Quebec
- Supra du Quebec3-1Atletico Ottawa
- Atletico Ottawa5-3Supra du Quebec
- Supra du Quebec0-1Atletico Ottawa
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atletico Ottawa 1523 · Supra du Quebec 1438
| Atletico Ottawa | Draw | Supra du Quebec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 24% | 39% |
| Market | 37% | 26% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.59 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Ottawa (rating 1523 vs 1438).
- H2H favours Atletico Ottawa: 3-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico Ottawa | Supra du Quebec | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.5 | 1.4 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.8 | 2.2 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Ottawa 3–1–1 Supra du Quebec
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/26 Canada Premier League | Supra du Quebec | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Atletico Ottawa |
| 12/08/26 Canada Championships | Atletico Ottawa | 3-3 HT 0-2 | Supra du Quebec |
| 09/07/26 Canada Championships | Supra du Quebec | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Atletico Ottawa |
| 10/06/26 Canada Premier League | Atletico Ottawa | 5-3 HT 1-3 | Supra du Quebec |
| 19/04/26 Canada Premier League | Supra du Quebec | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Atletico Ottawa |
Standings · Canada Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 41 | 12 | 49 |
| 2 | Forge FC | 21 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 33 | 15 | 45 |
| 3 | Atletico Ottawa | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 34 | 37 | 34 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 30 | 28 | 30 |
| 5 | HFX Wanderers | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 31 | 37 | 23 |
| 6 | Inter Toronto | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 29 | 42 | 23 |
| 7 | Supra du Quebec | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 29 | 38 | 22 |
| 8 | Pacific FC (CA) | 21 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 25 | 43 | 10 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atletico Ottawa | Supra du Quebec |
|---|---|---|
| Forge FC | 0-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Pacific FC (CA) | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Inter Toronto | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Cavalry FC | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Vancouver FC | 4-0 W | 2-3 L |
| HFX Wanderers | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico Ottawa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Forge FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 05/09 | Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 29/08 | Inter Toronto Canada Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 22/08 | Cavalry FC Canada Premier League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 20/08 | Vancouver FC Canada Premier League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 16/08 | Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 08/08 | HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Vancouver FC Canada Premier League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 26/07 | Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 18/07 | Inter Toronto Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
Supra du Quebec
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 07/09 | Vancouver FC Canada Premier League |
2-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Forge FC Canada Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 23/08 | Inter Toronto Canada Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 9 | D |
| 20/08 | Forge FC Canada Premier League |
2-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 16/08 | Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 09/08 | Cavalry FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 01/08 | Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 29/07 | Cavalry FC Canada Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 25/07 | HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League |
0-2 | 3-2 | 2 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Supra du Quebec win (38%). Probabilities: Atletico Ottawa 37%, draw 25%, Supra du Quebec 38%.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec?
The model expects 3.59 goals (Atletico Ottawa 1.78 · Supra du Quebec 1.81), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Atletico Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.