Football · Canada Premier League · 26/09, 22:00

Prediction: HFX Wanderers vs Atletico Ottawa

Team pages: HFX Wanderers · Atletico Ottawa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

HFX Wanderers1.73

Atletico Ottawa1.41

1X2

44% 26% 30%

HFX Wanderers Draw Atletico Ottawa

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

HFX Wanderers 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Atletico Ottawa 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

HFX Wanderers 1–5 Atletico Ottawa (6 last)

Atletico Ottawa2-1HFX Wanderers
HFX Wanderers1-3Atletico Ottawa
Atletico Ottawa1-0HFX Wanderers
HFX Wanderers0-1Atletico Ottawa
Atletico Ottawa2-0HFX Wanderers
HFX Wanderers2-0Atletico Ottawa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HFX Wanderers 1461 · Atletico Ottawa 1518

	HFX Wanderers	Draw	Atletico Ottawa
Our model	44%	25%	30%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Ottawa (rating 1461 vs 1518).
H2H favours Atletico Ottawa: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HFX Wanderers	Atletico Ottawa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.8	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.5	1.7 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.40

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:07 +7’	2.05	3.40	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HFX Wanderers 1–0–5 Atletico Ottawa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	2-1 HT 0-1	HFX Wanderers
01/07/26 Canada Premier League	HFX Wanderers	1-3 HT 0-3	Atletico Ottawa
17/05/26 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	1-0 HT 1-0	HFX Wanderers
18/10/25 Canada Premier League	HFX Wanderers	0-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Ottawa
19/07/25 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	2-0 HT 1-0	HFX Wanderers
24/05/25 Canada Premier League	HFX Wanderers	2-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Ottawa

Standings · Canada Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cavalry FC	22	15	5	2	42	13	50
2	Forge FC	22	14	4	4	34	16	46
3	Atletico Ottawa	23	10	4	9	34	39	34
4	Vancouver FC	23	9	4	10	31	29	31
5	HFX Wanderers	23	7	5	11	35	38	26
6	Supra du Quebec	22	7	4	11	31	38	25
7	Inter Toronto	21	5	8	8	30	46	23
8	Pacific FC (CA)	22	1	8	13	26	44	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HFX Wanderers	Atletico Ottawa
Inter Toronto	4-1 W	2-1 W
Supra du Quebec	2-0 W	0-2 L
Cavalry FC	1-3 L	1-3 L
Pacific FC (CA)	3-4 L	0-0 D
Vancouver FC	1-0 W	4-0 W
Forge FC	0-0 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: HFX Wanderers (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HFX Wanderers

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	3-1	4-1	0	6	W
12/09	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	2-0	2-0	3	1	W
07/09	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-3	1	4	L
31/08	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	1-1	3-4	3	3	L
22/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	1-0	1-0	8	5	W
16/08	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	1-3	3-4	6	3	L
08/08	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	1-0	1-2	1	3	L
03/08	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
25/07	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	2-0	2-3	6	2	L
18/07	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	0	0	D

Atletico Ottawa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-0	0-2	7	3	L
13/09	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-3	4	6	L
05/09	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
29/08	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	0-1	2-1	3	8	W
22/08	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	1-2	1-3	3	5	L
20/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	1-0	4-0	1	3	W
16/08	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-0	2-1	4	5	W
08/08	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-1	2-1	2	3	W
02/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-3	1-3	6	5	L
26/07	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	1-0	3-2	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HFX Wanderers vs Atletico Ottawa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HFX Wanderers win (44%). Probabilities: HFX Wanderers 44%, draw 26%, Atletico Ottawa 30%.

How many goals are expected in HFX Wanderers vs Atletico Ottawa?

The model expects 3.14 goals (HFX Wanderers 1.73 · Atletico Ottawa 1.41), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in HFX Wanderers vs Atletico Ottawa?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.