Football · Canada Premier League · 27/09, 01:00

Prediction: Vancouver FC vs Forge FC

Team pages: Vancouver FC · Forge FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Vancouver FC0.98

Forge FC1.42

1X2

25% 28% 47%

Vancouver FC Draw Forge FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Vancouver FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Forge FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Vancouver FC 1–1–4 Forge FC (6 last)

Forge FC0-1Vancouver FC
Forge FC3-2Vancouver FC
Vancouver FC0-1Forge FC
Forge FC1-1Vancouver FC
Vancouver FC0-1Forge FC
Forge FC2-1Vancouver FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vancouver FC 1482 · Forge FC 1545

	Vancouver FC	Draw	Forge FC
Our model	25%	29%	46%
Market	26%	27%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Forge FC (rating 1482 vs 1545).
H2H favours Forge FC: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vancouver FC	Forge FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.8	2.3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	5.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.30

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:03 +15’	3.50	3.30	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vancouver FC 1–1–4 Forge FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Vancouver FC
01/07/26 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	3-2 HT 0-2	Vancouver FC
13/04/26 Canada Premier League	Vancouver FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Forge FC
04/10/25 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Vancouver FC
23/08/25 Canada Premier League	Vancouver FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Forge FC
05/07/25 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Vancouver FC

Standings · Canada Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cavalry FC	22	15	5	2	42	13	50
2	Forge FC	22	14	4	4	34	16	46
3	Atletico Ottawa	23	10	4	9	34	39	34
4	Vancouver FC	23	9	4	10	31	29	31
5	HFX Wanderers	23	7	5	11	35	38	26
6	Supra du Quebec	22	7	4	11	31	38	25
7	Inter Toronto	21	5	8	8	30	46	23
8	Pacific FC (CA)	22	1	8	13	26	44	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vancouver FC	Forge FC
Pacific FC (CA)	1-1 D	2-0 W
Inter Toronto	1-3 L	1-1 D
Supra du Quebec	3-2 W	0-1 L
Cavalry FC	0-1 L	1-1 D
HFX Wanderers	0-1 L	0-0 D
Atletico Ottawa	0-4 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Forge FC (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vancouver FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
13/09	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	0-1	1-3	8	3	L
07/09	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	2-2	3-2	1	3	W
29/08	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
22/08	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
20/08	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-1	0-4	6	3	L
15/08	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
08/08	Forge FC Canada Premier League	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
02/08	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	3-0	3-1	3	5	W
25/07	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	5	W

Forge FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
13/09	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-0	3-0	3	6	W
06/09	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
29/08	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
23/08	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	0-0	2-0	7	2	W
20/08	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	2-2	3-2	5	3	W
15/08	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	1-0	1-2	1	7	L
08/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
03/08	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
26/07	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	1-1	3-1	9	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vancouver FC vs Forge FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Forge FC win (47%). Probabilities: Vancouver FC 25%, draw 28%, Forge FC 47%.

How many goals are expected in Vancouver FC vs Forge FC?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Vancouver FC 0.98 · Forge FC 1.42), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Vancouver FC vs Forge FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.