Football · Canada Premier League · 25/10, 21:00

Prediction: HFX Wanderers vs Supra du Quebec

Team pages: HFX Wanderers · Supra du Quebec

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.44Total

HFX Wanderers1.49

Supra du Quebec1.95

1X2

28% 25% 47%

HFX Wanderers Draw Supra du Quebec

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

HFX Wanderers 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWLDDL

Supra du Quebec 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLWLWWDW

Head-to-head

HFX Wanderers 1–2 Supra du Quebec (3 last)

Supra du Quebec0-2HFX Wanderers
HFX Wanderers2-3Supra du Quebec
Supra du Quebec2-1HFX Wanderers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HFX Wanderers 1464 · Supra du Quebec 1534

	HFX Wanderers	Draw	Supra du Quebec
Our model	29%	24%	47%
Market	28%	25%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.44 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Supra du Quebec (rating 1464 vs 1534).
H2H favours Supra du Quebec: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HFX Wanderers	Supra du Quebec
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 2	1.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.3	2.9 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.60

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 04:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 3.25▲	Pinn 3.35 ★
X	3.40 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.65
2	2.05 → 1.95▼	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 9.8% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:24 +3’	2.90	3.40	2.05
15:25 +14’	3.00▲	3.50▲	2.10▲
04:27 +3’	3.25▲	3.60▲	1.95▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:12 +6’	3.28	3.56	1.90
09:23 +58’	3.35▲	3.65▲	1.93▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HFX Wanderers 1–0–2 Supra du Quebec

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/09/26 Canada Premier League	Supra du Quebec	0-2 HT 0-2	HFX Wanderers
25/07/26 Canada Premier League	HFX Wanderers	2-3 HT 2-0	Supra du Quebec
25/04/26 Canada Premier League	Supra du Quebec	2-1 HT 1-1	HFX Wanderers

Standings · Canada Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cavalry FC	27	17	6	4	57	23	57
2	Forge FC	27	17	6	4	48	21	57
3	Atletico Ottawa	27	13	4	10	41	43	43
4	Vancouver FC	27	10	7	10	39	36	37
5	Supra du Quebec	27	10	5	12	43	47	35
6	HFX Wanderers	27	7	7	13	41	46	28
7	Inter Toronto	27	6	9	12	40	64	27
8	Pacific FC (CA)	27	2	8	17	32	61	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HFX Wanderers	Supra du Quebec
Vancouver FC	1-2 L	2-2 D
Cavalry FC	2-2 D	0-6 L
Forge FC	3-3 D	1-0 W
Atletico Ottawa	0-1 L	2-0 W
Inter Toronto	4-1 W	3-0 W
Pacific FC (CA)	3-4 L	5-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Supra du Quebec (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HFX Wanderers

LWLLWWLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	1-1	1-2	2	2	L
12/10	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	1-1	2-2	11	6	D
03/10	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-1	3-3	0	2	D
26/09	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
20/09	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	3-1	4-1	0	6	W
12/09	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	2-0	2-0	3	1	W
07/09	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-3	1	4	L
31/08	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	1-1	3-4	3	3	L
22/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	1-0	1-0	8	5	W
16/08	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	1-3	3-4	6	3	L

Supra du Quebec

DWLLWLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	0-0	3-0	6	3	W
10/10	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	1-0	2-2	9	5	D
07/10	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	2-1	2-1	3	6	W
04/10	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	1-0	5-0	5	3	W
26/09	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-2	0-6	3	6	L
20/09	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
12/09	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-2	0-2	1	1	L
07/09	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	2-2	2-3	7	3	L
29/08	Forge FC Canada Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
23/08	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	0-1	1-1	10	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HFX Wanderers vs Supra du Quebec?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Supra du Quebec win (47%). Probabilities: HFX Wanderers 28%, draw 25%, Supra du Quebec 47%.

How many goals are expected in HFX Wanderers vs Supra du Quebec?

The model expects 3.44 goals (HFX Wanderers 1.49 · Supra du Quebec 1.95), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in HFX Wanderers vs Supra du Quebec?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.