Football · Canada Premier League · 01/11, 20:00

Prediction: Atletico Ottawa vs Forge FC

Team pages: Atletico Ottawa · Forge FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Atletico Ottawa1.06

Forge FC1.75

1X2

22% 25% 53%

Atletico Ottawa Draw Forge FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Ottawa 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWDLLWWWLL

Forge FC 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

LDWDDDWWWD

Head-to-head

Atletico Ottawa 2–1–3 Forge FC (6 last)

Atletico Ottawa1-2Forge FC
Forge FC3-0Atletico Ottawa
Atletico Ottawa2-1Forge FC
Forge FC2-0Atletico Ottawa
Forge FC1-2Atletico Ottawa
Atletico Ottawa1-1Forge FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Ottawa 1486 · Forge FC 1553

	Atletico Ottawa	Draw	Forge FC
Our model	22%	26%	52%
Market	23%	24%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Forge FC (rating 1486 vs 1553).
H2H favours Forge FC: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Ottawa	Forge FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.9	4 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.90

X3.80

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.77

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
19:37 +5’	3.90	3.80	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Ottawa 2–1–3 Forge FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/10/26 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	1-2 HT 0-1	Forge FC
13/09/26 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	3-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Ottawa
24/05/26 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	2-1 HT 0-0	Forge FC
04/04/26 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Ottawa
26/10/25 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	1-2 HT 1-1	Atletico Ottawa
21/09/25 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	1-1 HT 1-0	Forge FC

Standings · Canada Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cavalry FC	28	18	6	4	58	23	60
2	Forge FC	28	17	7	4	49	22	58
3	Atletico Ottawa	28	13	4	11	42	45	43
4	Supra du Quebec	28	11	5	12	47	50	38
5	Vancouver FC	28	10	7	11	39	37	37
6	Inter Toronto	28	7	9	12	42	65	30
7	HFX Wanderers	28	7	7	14	44	50	28
8	Pacific FC (CA)	28	2	9	17	33	62	15

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Ottawa	Forge FC
Inter Toronto	1-2 L	5-0 W
Pacific FC (CA)	2-0 W	1-1 D
Cavalry FC	3-2 W	1-1 D
HFX Wanderers	1-0 W	3-3 D
Supra du Quebec	0-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Ottawa (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Ottawa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
17/10	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
12/10	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	1-0	2-0	8	7	W
01/10	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-1	3-2	7	6	W
26/09	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
20/09	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-0	0-2	7	3	L
13/09	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-3	4	6	L
05/09	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
29/08	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	0-1	2-1	3	8	W
22/08	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	1-2	1-3	3	5	L

Forge FC

LDWDDDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
17/10	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	1-0	2-1	3	6	W
12/10	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	3-0	5-0	5	1	W
08/10	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	1-0	3-0	13	3	W
03/10	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	1-0	3-3	8	2	D
27/09	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
19/09	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
13/09	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-0	3-0	3	6	W
06/09	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
29/08	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Ottawa vs Forge FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Forge FC win (53%). Probabilities: Atletico Ottawa 22%, draw 25%, Forge FC 53%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Ottawa vs Forge FC?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Atletico Ottawa 1.06 · Forge FC 1.75), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Ottawa vs Forge FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.