Football · Canada Premier League · 17/10, 19:00

Prediction: Atletico Ottawa vs Forge FC

Team pages: Atletico Ottawa · Forge FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Atletico Ottawa1.03

Forge FC1.62

1X2

23% 26% 50%

Atletico Ottawa Draw Forge FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Ottawa 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Forge FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Atletico Ottawa 2–1–3 Forge FC (6 last)

Forge FC3-0Atletico Ottawa
Atletico Ottawa2-1Forge FC
Forge FC2-0Atletico Ottawa
Forge FC1-2Atletico Ottawa
Atletico Ottawa1-1Forge FC
Forge FC2-0Atletico Ottawa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Ottawa 1550 · Forge FC 1530

	Atletico Ottawa	Draw	Forge FC
Our model	23%	27%	50%
Market	24%	25%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Forge FC: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Ottawa	Forge FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	1.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.7	4 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.75

X3.50

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.00

2 (-0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:11 +14’	3.75	3.50	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Ottawa 2–1–3 Forge FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/09/26 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	3-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Ottawa
24/05/26 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	2-1 HT 0-0	Forge FC
04/04/26 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Ottawa
26/10/25 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	1-2 HT 1-1	Atletico Ottawa
21/09/25 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	1-1 HT 1-0	Forge FC
17/08/25 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Ottawa

Standings · Canada Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cavalry FC	25	16	5	4	51	19	53
2	Forge FC	25	15	6	4	41	20	51
3	Atletico Ottawa	26	13	4	9	40	41	43
4	Vancouver FC	26	9	7	10	37	35	34
5	Supra du Quebec	26	9	5	12	40	47	32
6	HFX Wanderers	25	7	6	12	38	42	27
7	Inter Toronto	25	6	9	10	40	56	27
8	Pacific FC (CA)	26	2	8	16	30	57	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Ottawa	Forge FC
Pacific FC (CA)	2-0 W	3-0 W
Cavalry FC	3-2 W	1-1 D
HFX Wanderers	1-0 W	3-3 D
Supra du Quebec	0-2 L	0-1 L
Inter Toronto	2-1 W	1-1 D
Vancouver FC	4-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Ottawa (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Ottawa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	1-0	2-0	8	7	W
01/10	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-1	3-2	7	6	W
26/09	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
20/09	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-0	0-2	7	3	L
13/09	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-3	4	6	L
05/09	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
29/08	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	0-1	2-1	3	8	W
22/08	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	1-2	1-3	3	5	L
20/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	1-0	4-0	1	3	W
16/08	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-0	2-1	4	4	W

Forge FC

LWWLDWDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	1-0	3-0	13	3	W
03/10	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	1-0	3-3	8	2	D
27/09	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
19/09	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
13/09	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-0	3-0	3	6	W
06/09	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
29/08	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
23/08	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	0-0	2-0	7	2	W
20/08	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	2-2	3-2	6	3	W
15/08	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	1-0	1-2	1	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Ottawa vs Forge FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Forge FC win (50%). Probabilities: Atletico Ottawa 23%, draw 26%, Forge FC 50%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Ottawa vs Forge FC?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Atletico Ottawa 1.03 · Forge FC 1.62), with a 58% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Ottawa vs Forge FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.