Football · Canada Premier League · 17/10, 04:00

Prediction: Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers

Team pages: Vancouver FC · HFX Wanderers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

Vancouver FC1.66

HFX Wanderers1.19

1X2

47% 26% 26%

Vancouver FC Draw HFX Wanderers

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Vancouver FC 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

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HFX Wanderers 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLWWLD

Head-to-head

Vancouver FC 2–4 HFX Wanderers (6 last)

HFX Wanderers1-0Vancouver FC
HFX Wanderers1-0Vancouver FC
Vancouver FC0-1HFX Wanderers
Vancouver FC3-1HFX Wanderers
HFX Wanderers1-2Vancouver FC
HFX Wanderers1-0Vancouver FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vancouver FC 1450 · HFX Wanderers 1490

	Vancouver FC	Draw	HFX Wanderers
Our model	47%	27%	26%
Market	48%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HFX Wanderers (rating 1450 vs 1490).
H2H favours HFX Wanderers: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vancouver FC	HFX Wanderers
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.9	1.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.4	1.7 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.50

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:09 +2’	1.90	3.50	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vancouver FC 2–0–4 HFX Wanderers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/08/26 Canada Premier League	HFX Wanderers	1-0 HT 1-0	Vancouver FC
30/05/26 Canada Premier League	HFX Wanderers	1-0 HT 0-0	Vancouver FC
05/04/26 Canada Premier League	Vancouver FC	0-1 HT 0-0	HFX Wanderers
29/09/25 Canada Premier League	Vancouver FC	3-1 HT 2-0	HFX Wanderers
04/08/25 Canada Premier League	HFX Wanderers	1-2 HT 0-1	Vancouver FC
21/06/25 Canada Premier League	HFX Wanderers	1-0 HT 0-0	Vancouver FC

Standings · Canada Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cavalry FC	25	16	5	4	51	19	53
2	Forge FC	25	15	6	4	41	20	51
3	Atletico Ottawa	26	13	4	9	40	41	43
4	Vancouver FC	26	9	7	10	37	35	34
5	Supra du Quebec	26	9	5	12	40	47	32
6	HFX Wanderers	25	7	6	12	38	42	27
7	Inter Toronto	25	6	9	10	40	56	27
8	Pacific FC (CA)	26	2	8	16	30	57	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vancouver FC	HFX Wanderers
Supra du Quebec	2-2 D	2-0 W
Forge FC	1-1 D	3-3 D
Inter Toronto	3-3 D	4-1 W
Pacific FC (CA)	1-1 D	3-4 L
Cavalry FC	0-1 L	1-3 L
Atletico Ottawa	0-4 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: HFX Wanderers (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vancouver FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-1	2-2	4	5	D
27/09	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
24/09	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	1-2	3-3	5	2	D
20/09	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
13/09	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	0-1	1-3	8	3	L
07/09	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	2-2	3-2	1	3	W
29/08	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
22/08	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
20/08	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-1	0-4	6	3	L
15/08	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	0-1	1-1	3	3	D

HFX Wanderers

DLLWLLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-1	3-3	0	2	D
26/09	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
20/09	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	3-1	4-1	0	6	W
12/09	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	2-0	2-0	3	1	W
07/09	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-3	1	4	L
31/08	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	1-1	3-4	3	3	L
22/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	1-0	1-0	8	5	W
16/08	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	1-3	3-4	6	3	L
08/08	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	1-0	1-2	1	3	L
03/08	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-0	7	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vancouver FC win (47%). Probabilities: Vancouver FC 47%, draw 26%, HFX Wanderers 26%.

How many goals are expected in Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers?

The model expects 2.85 goals (Vancouver FC 1.66 · HFX Wanderers 1.19), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.