Football · Canada Premier League · 03/10, 22:00
Prediction: Forge FC vs HFX Wanderers
Team pages: Forge FC · HFX Wanderers
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.86Total
Forge FC1.98
HFX Wanderers0.89
1X2
Forge FC
Draw
HFX Wanderers
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Forge FC
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
HFX Wanderers
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Forge FC
5–1–0
HFX Wanderers
(6 last)
- HFX Wanderers0-0Forge FC
- Forge FC1-0HFX Wanderers
- Forge FC4-0HFX Wanderers
- HFX Wanderers1-3Forge FC
- Forge FC1-0HFX Wanderers
- HFX Wanderers1-2Forge FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Forge FC 1545 · HFX Wanderers 1444
| Forge FC | Draw | HFX Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 23% | 15% |
| Market | 62% | 22% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.86 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Forge FC (rating 1545 vs 1444).
- H2H favours Forge FC: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Forge FC | HFX Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.9 | 1.7 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 1.1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.9 | 2.1 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.3 | 3.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Forge FC 5–1–0 HFX Wanderers
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/26 Canada Premier League | HFX Wanderers | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Forge FC |
| 11/06/26 Canada Premier League | Forge FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | HFX Wanderers |
| 09/05/26 Canada Championships | Forge FC | 4-0 HT 2-0 | HFX Wanderers |
| 02/05/26 Canada Premier League | HFX Wanderers | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Forge FC |
| 06/09/25 Canada Premier League | Forge FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | HFX Wanderers |
| 26/07/25 Canada Premier League | HFX Wanderers | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Forge FC |
Standings · Canada Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 48 | 13 | 53 |
| 2 | Forge FC | 23 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 35 | 17 | 47 |
| 3 | Atletico Ottawa | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 35 | 39 | 37 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 35 | 33 | 33 |
| 5 | HFX Wanderers | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 35 | 39 | 26 |
| 6 | Supra du Quebec | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 31 | 44 | 25 |
| 7 | Inter Toronto | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 36 | 53 | 24 |
| 8 | Pacific FC (CA) | 23 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 47 | 14 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Forge FC | HFX Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Vancouver FC | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Cavalry FC | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Atletico Ottawa | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Inter Toronto | 1-1 D | 4-1 W |
| Supra du Quebec | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Pacific FC (CA) | 2-0 W | 3-4 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 1 L | 3 W 0 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Forge FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Vancouver FC Canada Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 19/09 | Cavalry FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 13/09 | Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 06/09 | Inter Toronto Canada Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 23/08 | Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 20/08 | Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League |
2-2 | 3-2 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 15/08 | Cavalry FC Canada Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 08/08 | Vancouver FC Canada Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 03/08 | HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
HFX Wanderers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 20/09 | Inter Toronto Canada Premier League |
3-1 | 4-1 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 12/09 | Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 07/09 | Cavalry FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 31/08 | Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League |
1-1 | 3-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Vancouver FC Canada Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | Inter Toronto Canada Premier League |
1-3 | 3-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 03/08 | Forge FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 25/07 | Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League |
2-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Forge FC vs HFX Wanderers?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Forge FC win (62%). Probabilities: Forge FC 62%, draw 22%, HFX Wanderers 15%.
How many goals are expected in Forge FC vs HFX Wanderers?
The model expects 2.86 goals (Forge FC 1.98 · HFX Wanderers 0.89), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Forge FC vs HFX Wanderers?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.