Football · Canada Premier League · 01/10, 01:00

Prediction: Atletico Ottawa vs Cavalry FC

Team pages: Atletico Ottawa · Cavalry FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Atletico Ottawa1.09

Cavalry FC1.82

1X2

22% 25% 54%

Atletico Ottawa Draw Cavalry FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Ottawa 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWLWDLLW

Cavalry FC 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWWWDW

Head-to-head

Atletico Ottawa 1–2–3 Cavalry FC (6 last)

Cavalry FC3-1Atletico Ottawa
Atletico Ottawa0-3Cavalry FC
Cavalry FC3-1Atletico Ottawa
Atletico Ottawa1-1Cavalry FC
Atletico Ottawa3-0Cavalry FC
Atletico Ottawa2-2Cavalry FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Ottawa 1487 · Cavalry FC 1631

	Atletico Ottawa	Draw	Cavalry FC
Our model	21%	25%	53%
Market	22%	24%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cavalry FC (rating 1487 vs 1631).
H2H favours Cavalry FC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Ottawa	Cavalry FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	2.5 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4	2.3 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.70

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:50 +17’	4.10	3.70	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Ottawa 1–2–3 Cavalry FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/08/26 Canada Premier League	Cavalry FC	3-1 HT 2-1	Atletico Ottawa
04/07/26 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	0-3 HT 0-3	Cavalry FC
12/04/26 Canada Premier League	Cavalry FC	3-1 HT 2-0	Atletico Ottawa
09/11/25 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	1-1 HT 1-1	Cavalry FC
27/09/25 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	3-0 HT 1-0	Cavalry FC
24/08/25 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	2-2 HT 0-2	Cavalry FC

Standings · Canada Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cavalry FC	23	16	5	2	48	13	53
2	Forge FC	23	14	5	4	35	17	47
3	Atletico Ottawa	24	11	4	9	35	39	37
4	Vancouver FC	25	9	6	10	35	33	33
5	HFX Wanderers	24	7	5	12	35	39	26
6	Supra du Quebec	23	7	4	12	31	44	25
7	Inter Toronto	23	5	9	9	36	53	24
8	Pacific FC (CA)	23	2	8	13	30	47	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Ottawa	Cavalry FC
HFX Wanderers	1-0 W	3-1 W
Supra du Quebec	0-2 L	6-0 W
Forge FC	0-3 L	1-1 D
Pacific FC (CA)	0-0 D	1-0 W
Inter Toronto	2-1 W	5-0 W
Vancouver FC	4-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Cavalry FC (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Ottawa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
20/09	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-0	0-2	7	3	L
13/09	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-3	4	6	L
05/09	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
29/08	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	0-1	2-1	3	8	W
22/08	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	1-2	1-3	3	5	L
20/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	1-0	4-0	1	3	W
16/08	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-0	2-1	4	5	W
08/08	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-1	2-1	2	3	W
02/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-3	1-3	6	5	L

Cavalry FC

WWDWWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	2-0	6-0	5	6	W
19/09	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
14/09	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
07/09	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-0	3-1	2	4	W
29/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
22/08	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	2-1	3-1	6	5	W
15/08	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
09/08	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
02/08	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	1-0	5-0	6	2	W
29/07	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	1-0	2-1	12	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cavalry FC win (54%). Probabilities: Atletico Ottawa 22%, draw 25%, Cavalry FC 54%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Atletico Ottawa 1.09 · Cavalry FC 1.82), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.