Football · Canada Premier League · 19/09, 23:00

Prediction: Cavalry FC vs Forge FC

Team pages: Cavalry FC · Forge FC

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.01Total

Cavalry FC1.27

Forge FC0.74

1X2

49% 29% 22%

Cavalry FC Draw Forge FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Cavalry FC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DLWWDWWWWW

Forge FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLLWWLDW

Head-to-head

Cavalry FC 3–2–1 Forge FC (6 last)

Cavalry FC2-1Forge FC
Forge FC1-0Cavalry FC
Forge FC0-0Cavalry FC
Forge FC0-1Cavalry FC
Cavalry FC1-1Forge FC
Cavalry FC4-1Forge FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cavalry FC 1579 · Forge FC 1529

	Cavalry FC	Draw	Forge FC
Our model	48%	32%	20%
Market	50%	27%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cavalry FC (rating 1579 vs 1529).
H2H favours Cavalry FC: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cavalry FC	Forge FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.7	1.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.4	2.3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	5.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.30

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 22:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 2.00▲	Pinn 2.09
X	3.30 → 3.20▼	Bet365 3.20
2	4.00 → 3.50▼	Pinn 4.05 ★

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 9.8% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:18 +7’	1.80	3.30	4.00
13:07 +1’	2.00▲	3.10▼	3.40▼
16:24 +39’	2.10▲	3.20▲	3.30▼
14:08 +29’	2.00▼	3.20	3.50▲
06:48 +4’	1.91▼	3.25▲	3.70▲
22:34 +2’	2.00▲	3.20▼	3.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:24 +38’	2.11	3.10	3.39
11:12 +2’	1.94▼	3.23▲	3.74▲
23:02 +11’	1.93▼	3.26▲	3.73▼
19:04 +9’	1.94▲	3.22▼	3.74▲
22:30 +7’	2.09▲	2.83▼	4.05▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 5 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cavalry FC 3–2–1 Forge FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Canada Premier League	Cavalry FC	2-1 HT 0-1	Forge FC
31/05/26 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Cavalry FC
18/04/26 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Cavalry FC
02/11/25 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Cavalry FC
11/10/25 Canada Premier League	Cavalry FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Forge FC
30/08/25 Canada Premier League	Cavalry FC	4-1 HT 1-0	Forge FC

Standings · Canada Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cavalry FC	21	15	4	2	41	12	49
2	Forge FC	21	14	3	4	33	15	45
3	Atletico Ottawa	22	10	4	8	34	37	34
4	Vancouver FC	22	9	3	10	30	28	30
5	HFX Wanderers	22	6	5	11	31	37	23
6	Inter Toronto	20	5	8	7	29	42	23
7	Supra du Quebec	21	6	4	11	29	38	22
8	Pacific FC (CA)	21	1	7	13	25	43	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cavalry FC	Forge FC
Pacific FC (CA)	1-0 W	2-0 W
HFX Wanderers	3-1 W	0-0 D
Vancouver FC	1-0 W	0-1 L
Atletico Ottawa	3-1 W	3-0 W
Supra du Quebec	1-1 D	0-1 L
Inter Toronto	5-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Cavalry FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cavalry FC

DLWWDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
07/09	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-0	3-1	2	4	W
29/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
22/08	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	2-1	3-1	6	5	W
15/08	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
09/08	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
02/08	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	1-0	5-0	6	2	W
29/07	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	1-0	2-1	12	6	W
25/07	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
18/07	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	0	0	D

Forge FC

WWDLLWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-0	3-0	3	6	W
06/09	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
29/08	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
23/08	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	0-0	2-0	7	2	W
20/08	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	2-2	3-2	5	3	W
15/08	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	1-0	1-2	1	7	L
08/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
03/08	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
26/07	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	1-1	3-1	9	5	W
05/07	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	1-0	2-1	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cavalry FC vs Forge FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cavalry FC win (49%). Probabilities: Cavalry FC 49%, draw 29%, Forge FC 22%.

How many goals are expected in Cavalry FC vs Forge FC?

The model expects 2.01 goals (Cavalry FC 1.27 · Forge FC 0.74), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Forge FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.