Football · Canada Premier League · 13/09, 01:00

Prediction: Forge FC vs Atletico Ottawa

Team pages: Forge FC · Atletico Ottawa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Forge FC1.9

Atletico Ottawa0.92

1X2

60% 23% 17%

Forge FC Draw Atletico Ottawa

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Forge FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Atletico Ottawa 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Forge FC 2–2–2 Atletico Ottawa (6 last)

Atletico Ottawa2-1Forge FC
Forge FC2-0Atletico Ottawa
Forge FC1-2Atletico Ottawa
Atletico Ottawa1-1Forge FC
Forge FC2-0Atletico Ottawa
Atletico Ottawa1-1Forge FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Forge FC 1518 · Atletico Ottawa 1536

	Forge FC	Draw	Atletico Ottawa
Our model	59%	24%	17%
Market	60%	23%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Forge FC	Atletico Ottawa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.1	1.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.7	1.5 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.50

X3.90

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:32 +2’	1.50	3.90	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Forge FC 2–2–2 Atletico Ottawa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	2-1 HT 0-0	Forge FC
04/04/26 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Ottawa
26/10/25 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	1-2 HT 1-1	Atletico Ottawa
21/09/25 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	1-1 HT 1-0	Forge FC
17/08/25 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Ottawa
12/07/25 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	1-1 HT 0-1	Forge FC

Standings · Canada Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cavalry FC	19	13	4	2	37	11	43
2	Forge FC	20	13	3	4	30	15	42
3	Atletico Ottawa	21	10	4	7	34	34	34
4	Vancouver FC	21	9	3	9	29	25	30
5	Supra du Quebec	20	6	4	10	29	36	22
6	HFX Wanderers	20	5	5	10	28	34	20
7	Inter Toronto	18	4	7	7	23	38	19
8	Pacific FC (CA)	19	1	6	12	22	39	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Forge FC	Atletico Ottawa
Inter Toronto	1-1 D	2-1 W
Supra du Quebec	0-1 L	2-1 W
Pacific FC (CA)	2-0 W	0-0 D
Cavalry FC	1-2 L	1-3 L
Vancouver FC	0-1 L	4-0 W
HFX Wanderers	0-0 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Ottawa (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Forge FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
29/08	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
23/08	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	0-0	2-0	7	2	W
20/08	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	2-2	3-2	5	3	W
15/08	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	1-0	1-2	1	7	L
08/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
03/08	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
26/07	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	1-1	3-1	9	5	W
05/07	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
01/07	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-2	3-2	7	2	W

Atletico Ottawa

LDWLWWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
29/08	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	0-1	2-1	3	8	W
22/08	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	1-2	1-3	3	5	L
20/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	1-0	4-0	1	3	W
16/08	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-0	2-1	4	5	W
08/08	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	0-1	2-1	2	3	W
02/08	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	0-3	1-3	6	5	L
26/07	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	1-0	3-2	6	5	W
18/07	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
04/07	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-3	0-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Forge FC vs Atletico Ottawa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Forge FC win (60%). Probabilities: Forge FC 60%, draw 23%, Atletico Ottawa 17%.

How many goals are expected in Forge FC vs Atletico Ottawa?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Forge FC 1.9 · Atletico Ottawa 0.92), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Forge FC vs Atletico Ottawa?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.